2010 as 1994
There’s been an increasing amount of talk about 2010 being a repeat of 1994, when Republicans took back both the House and Senate in a stunning rebuke to a Democratic president who tried to radically reform America’s health care and otherwise enact social changes the country wasn’t ready for.
President Obama allegedly scoffed at the suggestion, bragging, “Well, the big difference here and in ’94 was you’ve got me.” We’ll see, of course, but Bill Clinton wasn’t exactly a slouch, either.
As noted yesterday, I believe the Republicans face an uphill fight to win 41 House seats. And 9 more Senate seats won’t be easy, either. But good news continues to pour in. And, no, I’m not referring to the John Edwards sex tape. One of these things has already happened and it’s quite conceivable that all of them will by November:
Democrats Lose President Obama’s Old Senate Seat
There’s an incredible backlash still remaining against former Governor Rod Blagojevich and the Democrats seem to have found the worst possible three candidates — aside from Blagojevich or incumbent Roland Burris — to try to keep the seat in their hands. And moderate, charismatic Republican Congressman Mark Kirk would be difficult to beat, anyway.
Democrats Lose Vice President Biden’s Old Senate Seat
For reasons not entirely clear, Delaware AG Beau Biden has decided not to run for his dad’s seat, despite the Democrat’s strange dance to keep the seat warm for him with a placeholder appointment. That means an open seat in a bad year for Democrats.
Democrats Lose Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s Senate Seat
Nevada is a Red State long represented by likable, moderate Democrat Harry Reid. Alas, for the past several years, likable, moderate Democrat Harry Reid has been, by virtue of attaining the highest honor available to a Senator, the position of Majority Leader, forced to be compromising, polarizing Democrat Harry Reid. Worse, by dint of a Democratic president with an ambitious agenda, Reid has been forced to carry the water on health care reform, a massive stimulus package, and other programs wildly unpopular back home. It’s quite likely to cost him his seat come November.
Democrats Lose Ted Kennedy’s Old Senate Seat
As you may be aware, this one already happened.
Now, all of these have idiosyncratic explanations tied at least partly to local circumstances. But they’re, to say the least, not good signs for the Democrats. And, if all four of these happen — and one already has — the odds of the Republicans picking up another 5 seats (including, say, a Joe Lieberman switch) are quite good.