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Why Is Romney Leading Among Independents But Lagging In The Polls?

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I noted on Monday that Mitt Romney seems to be maintaining a distinct advantage among self-identified Independents in both state and national polling. At the same time, and especially at the state-level, he seems unable to surpass President Obama in the top-line numbers. These facts have been frequently cited by conservatives as “proof” of their […]

Don’t Try To Parse Chris Christie

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Pundits on the left and the right are having a hard time understanding what Chris Christie’s praise of the President is all about.

Chris Christie Postpones Halloween

There won’t be any little ghosts and goblins tonight if Chris Christie has anything to say about it: Gov. Chris Christie today signed an executive order to postpone Halloween until Monday because of unsafe conditions throughout New Jersey in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. “In too many communities in our state, the damage and losses […]

Obama Up By Eight Points In New Wisconsin Poll

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Marquette University was one of the few polling outfits to accurately call the outcome of the Recall Election mounted against Governor Scott Walker earlier this year and, even before that, was one of the most respected polls in Wisconsin. Today, they came out with what looks to be their final poll of the Presidential race […]

Self-Driving Cars Better Than You-Driving Cars

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We are fast approaching an era where robot-driven cars will not only be practical but mandatory.

Romney Running Out Of Time In Ohio And Elsewhere

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Mitt Romney has ground to make up if he’s going to catch the President and there’s not much time left to do it.

Hurricane Sandy And The Broken Window Fallacy

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Once again, a natural disaster has caused a common economic fallacy re resurface.

A Four Year Old Girl Speaks For The Entire Nation

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Believe me kid, you’re not alone: H/T: National Journal

Presidential Race ‘Tight’ in Meaningless National Polls [UPDATED]

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A week out from the election, President Obama is a heavy favorite to win re-election. But the major press continues to pretend otherwise.

2012 Voter Turnout Likely To Be Lowest In Eight Years

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If the results of a new Gallup poll are correct, voter turnout on Tuesday isn’t likely to be as high as it was four years ago, or eight years ago for that matter: PRINCETON, NJ — Key Gallup indicators of voter turnout, collected prior to superstorm Sandy, suggest voter turnout will fall short of what […]

New Star Wars Movie Coming in 2015

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George Lucas has sold the Star Wars franchise to Disney, which has announced a new Star Wars movie for 2015.

Disney To Acquire Lucasfilm, Promises Star Wars 7 In 2015

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Big business news came after the Closing Bell on Wall Street today when The Walt Disney Company announced that it had entered into a deal to purchase George Lucas’s Lucasfilm for over $4 billion dollars: Walt Disney announced Tuesday that it has agreed to acquire Lucasfilm, the film company founded by Star Wars creator George […]

Ivy League Student Doesn’t Believe Hurricane Sandy Really Happened

This is either a very sad statement on the state of America’s undergraduates, or a really good troll: NBC 10’s Alison Bologna didn’t get the interview she expected from “Daniel,” a Brown student, live from Fox Point Hurricane Barrier in Providence. Daniel says the government wants you to think a hurricane happened and that classes […]

It’s Not Just Nate Silver

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Brendan Nyhan points out a number of political science forecasting models that see Obama winning this election: The most well-known quantitative analyst of politics is Nate Silver, whoseFiveThirtyEight blog now appears on the New York Times website. Even though his black box statistical models have not been publicly disclosed or scientifically validated, Silver’s analyses have acquired a talismanic quality among […]

Obama “Only” Leads By Six In Oregon, But This Is Neither Surprising Nor Important

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I’m seeing several bloggers on the right point to a new poll from The Oregonian as a sign that Romney campaign is surging: President Barack Obama holds a relatively narrow lead of six points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Oregon, according to a new poll conducted for The Oregonian. Obama’s lead is considerably smaller than his […]

New York Subway System Closed For “Four Or Five” Days

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New York City didn’t take a direct hit from Sandy last night. Indeed, that happened some 150 miles to the south. Nonetheless, it was clear that the city was going to be impacted in a major way when water started flooding into the low lying areas around Battery Park and, eventually, into the subway tunnels. […]

On Postponing Elections

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Under the right circumstances, it would be possible to postpone a Presidential election.

Explosives Found in Wreckage of Polish Plane Wreck [UPDATE: No Explosives After All]

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Two years ago, Polish President Lech Kaczynski and 95 others were killed in a plane crash in Russia. A new report has “traces of explosives” in the debris.

Hurricane Sandy Open Thread

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Were you impacted by Hurricane Sandy? If so, how did you fare?

Poll: Obama And Romney Roughly Even In Early Voting

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According to a new Gallup poll, people who are voting early are divided roughly equally between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney: Fifteen percent of registered voters have already cast their ballots, according to a poll released Tuesday. Neither candidate has an edge among early voters nationally, the Gallup survey found. One-third of Barack Obama backers plan […]

Chris Christie Praises Obama Sandy Response

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New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been working tirelessly to ensure Barack Obama is a one-term president but has been effusive in praising Obama’s leadership during Hurricane Sandy.

Hurricane Sandy And Polling

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Gallup did not run its national tracking poll last night due to Hurricane Sandy: Gallup has suspended polling for its daily tracking as of Monday night and will reassess on a day-to-day basis. The ultimate effect on the overall picture of polling between now and this weekend, including election polling, will depend on what happens […]

Putting Probabilities in Perspective

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Jonathan V. Last: People seem to think that it would reflect badly on Silver if Romney were to win while Silver’s model shows only a 25 percent chance of victory. But isn’t 25 percent kind of a lot? If I told you there was a 1-in-4 chance of you getting hit by a bus tomorrow, […]

Hurricanes And The News Media

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Why do natural disasters cause the news media to act so stupidly?

OTB Caption Contest Winners

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The Hair of the Dog Edition OTB Caption ContestTM is now over.

Supreme Court To Consider Same-Sex Marriage Cases At November 20th Conference

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The Supreme Court will consider whether to grant hearings in two cases involving same -sex marriage at its conference on November 20th: The Supreme Court is scheduled to consider whether it will hear cases challenging the constitutionality of the Defense of Marriage Act and California’s Proposition 8 on Nov. 20, according to a series of […]

Romney Has An Advantage Among Independents

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Mitt Romney has an advantage among self-identified Independents that makes writing him off at this point inadvisable.

White House Website Politicization

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I was struck by the degree to which WhiteHouse.gov looks like an Obama campaign site.

Tomb of the Known Unknowns

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Do we really need to guard the Tomb of the Unknowns in the midst of a hurricane?

Why We Vote On Tuesdays

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Basically, you can blame 19th century modes of transportation: It’s Tuesday — exactly two weeks out from Nov. 6, Election Day. Why is voting day for American federal elections always a Tuesday? The answer is a bit obscure and has to do with buggies. Let me explain. The story starts all the way back with […]

Supreme Court Overrules Hurricane Sandy

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The nation’s capitol is closed in anticipation of Hurricane Sandy. But the Supreme Court will be reporting for duty.

The Politics of Hurricane Sandy

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Naturally, most of us are asking: What does this mean for next Tuesday’s election.

OTB Caption Contest

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Time for the Monday OTB Caption ContestTM

Another “Green On Blue” Attack Claims Two American Lives In Afghanistan

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And, it’s happened again: KABUL, Afghanistan — A man in an Afghan police uniform shot and killed two American service members in what appeared to be the latest attack on international forces this year by their Afghan partners. The so-called insider attacks have stretched to the breaking point a partnership that U.S. and NATO officials […]

The Central Problem in the Polling Debate?

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Too many people ignore (and incorrectly define) the “independents” in a given sample.

Andrew Sullivan: If Romney Wins Virginia And Florida, It’s The Return Of The Confederacy

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Equating opposition to the President with racism is absurd.

Mid-Atlantic Braces For Sandy

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The Mid-Atlantic region is under the gun.

A Race In Minnesota?

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Minnesota hasn’t gone Republican since 1972, when Richard Nixon trounced the inept campaign of George McGovern. It didn’t even get caught up in the 1984 Reagan walloping of Walter Mondale, thus saving Mondale from becoming the only major party Presidential candidate in history to never win a state (Mondale did win the District of Columbia […]

Superman Quits The News Business, May Take Up Blogging

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Clark Kent is looking for a new career:  (CNN) – Add Superman to the list of reporters leaving the newspaper business behind. In the comic book series’ latest issue, which went on sale Wednesday, an outraged Clark Kent quits his job at The Daily Planet after his boss berates him. “I was taught to believe you […]

Des Moines Register Endorses Romney, First Republican In 40 Years

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I remain skeptical about the utility or influence of newspaper endorsements, but it is always interesting to note when a prominent news paper in a swing state switches there endorsement from one party to another. That happened last night when The Des Moines Register, which had not endorsed a Republican since Richard Nixon in 1972 and […]

Tammy Duckworth Up Ten Points On Tea Party Congressman Joe Walsh

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Joe Walsh, the freshman Republican Congressman from Illinois who has been a lightning rod for controversy since taking office, is in serious trouble: Democratic congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth has opened a double-digit lead over freshman Republican Rep. Joe Walsh, an edge fueled by a huge advantage among female voters as women’s issues have taken center […]

Moderation in a Polarized World

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David Brooks tries to “describe what being a moderate means” in a way that most Americans would find puzzling.

The Race Might Not Be Over On November 6th

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There are several circumstances under which we may not know who won the 2012 election for some time after November 6th

Summing up the Polling Debate

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Dean Chambers of UnSkewed fame, puts the polling debate into sharp perspective.

Unfortunate Movie Poster Placement

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Someone probably should’ve thought a little bit before setting this up: Found via Facebook

Republicans And Democrats Conceding Maine Senate Race To Angus King?

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At least on the national level, Republicans and Democrats both seem to have given up on the race to replace Maine Senator Olympia Snowe: Senate Republicans have given up on forcing a close race in Maine for former Independent Gov.Angus King, backing off a bid launched in late summer as declining GOP hopes in other […]

OTB Caption Contest Winners

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The Sonny and Chair Edition OTB Caption ContestTM is now over.

How Much Should Doctors Tell You About Your Medical Future?

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The case of an infant with a rare genetic condition raises an interesting ethical dilemma.

CIA Agents On The Ground In Benghazi Were Denied Requests For Assistance

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On the night of the attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, CIA agents on the ground sent word back to Washington asking for assistance, requests that were largely ignored: Fox News has learned from sources who were on the ground in Benghazi that an urgent request from the CIA annex for military back-up during […]

East Coast, Political Campaigns, Brace For Hurricane Sandy

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With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, one of the most populous regions of the nation is under the gun of a late season hurricane that threatens to mutate into a Nor’Easter: Forecasters said on Friday that there was a 90 percent certainty that Hurricane Sandy would make landfall on the East […]

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