DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP

James Joyner | Monday, April 14, 2003

StrategyPage devotes most of today’s Iraq summary to the heightened tensions with Syria:

The U.S. has warned Syria to stop it’s support for Saddam Hussein and his henchmen or face grave consequences. Many of the foreign fighters encountered in Iraq are Syrians, Special Forces watching the Syrian border have seen many fighters and much military equipment crossing into Iraq. The U.S. also believes that Iraq has moved its chemical weapons to Syria. Special Forces also discovered an illegal oil pipeline into Syria, which apparently sent over a billion dollars worth of Iraqi oil a year. This would explain some of the Syrian support for Saddam, who had long been a bitter enemy of the Syrians. Back in the 1960s, Syria and Iraq were run by the same Baath party, but then there was a political dispute that left the two Baath parties bitter enemies for decades.

Thousands of senior Iraqi officials have been seen headed for the Syrian border and many appear to have made it across. U.S. Special Forces and coalition commandos are trying to catch some of these fugitives. But the tribes in the area have been smuggling people and goods over the border for centuries and Saddam’s cronies have plenty of cash. So far, about half a dozen senior Saddam aides have been caught near the Syrian border.

I’m hopeful that the statements over the last couple of days by President Bush and Deputy SECDEF Wolfowitz will persuade the Syrian regime to cooperate.

In cheerier news, the civilian casualty figures have been revised downward:

Civilian casualties for the war were between 484 and 856 dead and between 4.411 and 6,606 wounded. Civilian losses after a major bombing campaign have never been so low. Sixty years ago, dropping that many bombs would have caused a hundred times more civilian injuries.

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• McCain and Obama as Leading Men
• Bush: Skipping Olympics an ‘Affront’ to China
• Al Qaeda in Iraq Defeated?
• Caption Contest Winners
• National Mall Disrepair
• 10 Taliban Kill Themselves in Botched Bombing
• Poll: Third of Clinton Voters to Stay Home
• Jesse Helms Dead at 86

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DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP

James Joyner | Thursday, April 10, 2003

StrategyPage, not surprisingly, reports that things are going well. The interesting thing about today’s column was this paragraph:

U.S. casualties have been revised upward, with the total wounded upped to 399, from the previous 155. The reason is problems with reporting, with many minor wounds, treated on the spot for a soldier who went back to his unit, recorded only later. The wounds counted earlier were the ones that came back to field hospitals. Another potential problem with counting wounds is how to rate bullets being stopped by the new protective vests (which are truly bulletproof to rifle bullets). These often leave a major bruise behind, or even a cracked rib? Is this guy “wounded.” In most cases, the soldier says some nice things about the vest manufacturer, thanks God and gets back into the fight. Anyway, after 21 days of combat, U.S. casualties are now at 518 (101 dead, 399 “wounded”, 11 missing and seven prisoners. This comes to 8 casualties per division per day. Still a historical low for divisions on the offensive and in contact with the enemy for three weeks.

It is indeed amazing how small the casualty count is, even when counting as “wounds” the sort of injuries people might get doing minor home repairs. May it continue: Remember, in Gulf War I, a huge chunk of our casualties came in a single Scud attack on a rear echelon base after the war seemed all but over. My estimate was that we’d lose 200; I’d like to stay well short of that.

• None Found

• Barack Obama, Natural Born U.S. Citizen
• Supreme Court Made Supreme Error in Child Rape Decision
• McCain and Obama as Leading Men
• Bush: Skipping Olympics an ‘Affront’ to China
• Al Qaeda in Iraq Defeated?
• Caption Contest Winners
• National Mall Disrepair
• 10 Taliban Kill Themselves in Botched Bombing
• Poll: Third of Clinton Voters to Stay Home
• Jesse Helms Dead at 86

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DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP

James Joyner | Wednesday, April 9, 2003

The headline on StrategyPage’s summary says it all: Baghdad Doesn’t Fall, It Crumbles. The performance of US troops continues to impress:

The coalition casualty rate has stayed as low as ever (about five casualties per division per day), mainly because of the high level of training and combat leadership among coalition troops, and the equally low levels among Iraqi troops. On the Iraqi side, the men most likely to resist are paramilitary troops (security troops, foreign Islamic volunteers.) These men, who appear to be clueless about what they are getting themselves into, are slaughtered by the coalition professionals. The Iraqi fighters are making matters worse by deliberately using civilians for cover. But the coalition rules of engagement do not force troops to not fire if Iraqis are shooting from behind civilians. In southern Iraq, the local civilians eventually took sides and went over to the coalition forces. This made it impossible for the pro-Saddam fighters to carry on and they fled. While this is happening in parts of Baghdad, there is really no place to run. While there may be a last stand in Saddam’s home town Tikrit (north of Baghdad), coalition forces have blocked all the main roads out of the city. For Saddam’s diehard defenders, it’s surrender or die, and many are choosing the latter option.

And I somehow missed this one yesterday:

The United States declared air superiority over Iraq, which means there is no significant threat to coalition aircraft. However, an A-10 was shot down yesterday, apparently by a French made Roland missile. Iraq had bought Roland missiles in the 1980s, but it is not known if the ones being used now are those older (and likely no longer working) missiles, or new ones smuggled in.

What is it that Glenn says? They aren’t against the war, they’re just on the other side.

• None Found

• Barack Obama, Natural Born U.S. Citizen
• Supreme Court Made Supreme Error in Child Rape Decision
• McCain and Obama as Leading Men
• Bush: Skipping Olympics an ‘Affront’ to China
• Al Qaeda in Iraq Defeated?
• Caption Contest Winners
• National Mall Disrepair
• 10 Taliban Kill Themselves in Botched Bombing
• Poll: Third of Clinton Voters to Stay Home
• Jesse Helms Dead at 86

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DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP

James Joyner | Monday, April 7, 2003

StrategyPage summarizes yesterdays military news about Iraq. A lot happened, almost all of it good:

The troops entered the two presidential palace compounds and killed hundreds of Iraqi troops who resisted. Scores of unarmed Iraqi troops could be seen fleeing on foot. All this took place across the river from the hotel where foreign journalists stay. The raid, in effect, went off right in front of the foreign reporters cameras. Coalition spokesmen described the operation as a raid, not an occupation of the center of the city. Some commandos were seen going into Iraqi occupied buildings, indicating that the raid has some specific objectives beyond a show of force and demonstration that coalition forces can go wherever they want in Baghdad. American soldiers and reporters were allowed to wander through the luxurious rooms of the palaces. Yesterday’s raid resulted in only one American soldier killed, and over a thousand dead Iraqis. So today’s raid also serves to kill off those Iraqis who are willing to resist. As was shown in southern Iraq, the number of Iraqis willing to fight is limited. When you kill most of them, things quiet down and Saddam’s crowd is no longer in control. The raid had the element of surprise, coming early in the morning and catching most Iraqi troops by surprise. While the raid was going on, reporters were in the nearby Information Ministry. With the sounds of artillery and gunfire in the background, the Minister of Information assured everyone that the American forces downtown had been destroyed.

Read it all. Unless you’ve been glued to the television all weekend, and maybe even then, you’ve missed something.

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• Barack Obama, Natural Born U.S. Citizen
• Supreme Court Made Supreme Error in Child Rape Decision
• McCain and Obama as Leading Men
• Bush: Skipping Olympics an ‘Affront’ to China
• Al Qaeda in Iraq Defeated?
• Caption Contest Winners
• National Mall Disrepair
• 10 Taliban Kill Themselves in Botched Bombing
• Poll: Third of Clinton Voters to Stay Home
• Jesse Helms Dead at 86

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DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP

James Joyner | Wednesday, April 2, 2003

DUNNIGAN’S ROUNDUP: StrategyPage’s daily news summary depicts a war going much better than most of the TV pundits grasp. It depicts a professional “4th generation” military overwhelming their foe:

Now it becomes obvious, as it did in 1991, that the Republican Guard are not elite and well trained, but simply well paid and more loyal to Saddam. If the Republican Guards are thrown back trying to hold the line 80 kilometers south of Baghdad, many Saddam loyalists will rethink their willingness to resist.

What is particularly disheartening to the Iraqis is that they can fight the coalition, but they find it almost impossible to kill or injure their better trained foes. Moreover, Iraq is under siege, with very little getting in. Most of Iraq’s border crossings are observed, or controlled, by coalition Special Forces and commandos.

Which is why door-to-door fighting is going to be unnecessary. And there’s more:

In central and western Iraq, U.S. Special Forces have made contact with tribal leaders and won some of them over to the anti-Saddam cause. About a quarter of the Iraqi population has a strong tribal connection, and many of these have guns, legal or illegal. Iraqi tribesmen have been fighting with U.S. troops moving up from the south as well as Special Forces operating in the west.

In the last 24 hours, fast moving coalition forces, and commandos, have captured at least half a dozen Iraqi generals, along with many colonels and the like who work for some of these generals. All of these officers are being interrogated about the state of Iraqi troops and combat capability, as well as Iraqis chemical weapons.

Maybe this is what Rummy and Co. mean when they say things are going according to plan? These actions don’t show make for good television, but they win wars.

• None Found

• Barack Obama, Natural Born U.S. Citizen
• Supreme Court Made Supreme Error in Child Rape Decision
• McCain and Obama as Leading Men
• Bush: Skipping Olympics an ‘Affront’ to China
• Al Qaeda in Iraq Defeated?
• Caption Contest Winners
• National Mall Disrepair
• 10 Taliban Kill Themselves in Botched Bombing
• Poll: Third of Clinton Voters to Stay Home
• Jesse Helms Dead at 86

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