Let Bin Laden Stay Free?
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James Joyner | Monday, January 10, 2005 |
Let Bin Laden stay free, says CIA man (Times of London, Sunday)
The world may be better off if Osama Bin Laden remains at large, according to the Central Intelligence Agencyâs recently departed executive director. If the worldâs most wanted terrorist is captured or killed, a power struggle among his Al-Qaeda subordinates may trigger a wave of terror attacks, said AB âBuzzyâ Krongard, who stepped down six weeks ago as the CIAâs third most senior executive. âYou can make the argument that weâre better off with him (at large),â Krongard said. âBecause if something happens to Bin Laden, you might find a lot of people vying for his position and demonstrating how macho they are by unleashing a stream of terror.â
Krongard, a former investment banker who joined the CIA in 1998, said Bin Ladenâs role among Islamic militants was changing. âHeâs turning into more of a charismatic leader than a terrorist mastermind,â he said. âSome of his lieutenants are the ones to worry about.â Krongard, 68, said he viewed Bin Laden ânot as a chief executive but more like a venture capitalistâ. He added: âLetâs say you and I want to blow up Trafalgar Square. So we go to Bin Laden. And heâll say, âWell, hereâs some money and some passports and if you need weapons, see this guyâ. âI donât see him keeping his fingers on everything because the lines of communications are just too difficult.â
Several US officials have privately admitted that it may be better to keep Bin Laden pinned down on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan rather than make him a martyr or put him on trial. But Krongard is the most senior figure to acknowledge publicly that his capture might prove counter-productive.
Krongard also acknowledged that the CIA was still having trouble planting spies in Islamic militant ranks. âThere are hundreds and hundreds of (Al-Qaeda) cells â itâs like a living, moving bit of protoplasm,â he said. âIn order to penetrate you not only have to be language-proficient, you also have to commit acts that exceed criminality. Itâs very hard.â
Certainly counter-intuitive. While it’s always been the case that bin Laden’s primary role was managerial rather than as a terrorist manager, it’s hard to conceive that capturing/killing him would be a bad move. While his acquiring martyr status might have negative consequences from a recruitment standpoint, presumably the same is true of his continued ability to elude the West. One would think, too, that a power struggle would be more likely to occur in the aftermath of bin Laden’s death/capture than in the present circumstances.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.
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Well, we certainly shouldn't try to fight the terrorists because they might get mad or bad things might happen. With respect to what Porter Goss has to do, as Michael Ledeen says, "faster please."
Well that would explain why they let him get away at Tora Bora. Or sour grapes would explain the CIA view above...
Makes sense, after all, Bush does not seem to give a rat's ass about getting bin laden.
His comments are orders of magnitude less certain than the headline makes them look, keep that in mind. He's presenting it as a possible scenario, one of many, which is how he was trained to think.
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