George Allen Post-Mortem
 |
James Joyner | Thursday, November 9, 2006 |
J. Thomas cites the following data as evidence (as if any were needed) that George Allen ran one awful campaign:
|
Republican incumbant - District
|
2004 %
|
2006 %
|
Allen 2006 %
|
| Davis - VA01 |
78%
|
63%
|
54%
|
| Drake - VA02 |
55%
|
51%
|
51%
|
| Forbes - VA04 |
64%
|
76% (no dem)
|
54%
|
| Good - VA05 |
63%
|
59%
|
53%
|
| Goodlatte - VA06 |
96% (uo)
|
75% (no dem)
|
58%
|
| Cantor - VA07 |
75%
|
63%
|
56%
|
| Wolf - VA10 |
63%
|
57%
|
48%
|
Via email, his colleague Justin Hart notes that, “With the exception of Thelma Drake (R - VA02) who eked out a win, every single Republican incumbent in Virginia won handily.” That’s true. Even throwing out the unopposed candidates in CDs 4 and 7, Allen got fewer votes than the Republican incumbents.
Of course, they also all got a smaller percentage of the vote–in some cases, decidedly so–than in the last go-round. That’s the real story, at least for the long haul.
In addition to running a woeful campaign, facing a Reagan SECNAV war hero, and an anti-Republican backlash nationwide, Allen had another obstacle that may have trumped all of them: Virginia is becoming Bluer by the day. The DC suburbs and exurbs of Northern Virginia are growing by leaps and bounds, now comprising more than a third of the Commonwealth’s residents and much more than that of the tax revenue. This is a trend likely to continue.
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True that. Quite odd.
Allen throws a pass, thanks god, kisses wife, kisses John Warner, concedes! (His wife is hot, by the way.)
Tom Davis may be in VA11 but JoAnn Davis, no relation as far as I know, represents VA01. I believe that's who James was referring to
Also, I believe that Allen actually lost in Tom Davis's district despite the fact that the Republican Congressman won.
I actually think the person who should look closely at those results is Webb. He won the election because he ran as a Clinton style moderate/center left type candidate. Virginia certainly did reject Allen (and I think Allen's campaign is a great example of how to not run one, the only guy who could run a campaign as bad as Allen and still win would be Kerry or Kennedy in Massachussette's where they are perpetucally appointed by the voters of Massachussettes)-but they weren't jumping on board the "reject the GOP" train to the extent that others were.
This seems to indicate that VA isn't on board with a left leaning liberal agenda. Webb needs to actually deliver as the candidate he purported to be, or his term may be limited to six years.
Comments are Closed
Tom Davis is the 11th District. I should know as I'm in it.