Unopposed Hillary Won 30% of Michigan Black Vote

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Unopposed Hillary Won 30% of Michigan Black Vote

James Joyner | Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Hillary Clinton ran away with the Michigan primary last night but the exit polls showed that she may be in trouble with black voters, CNN’s Alan Isenberg reports.

The Michigan primary vote was essentially meaningless: the national party stripped the state of its delegates because it held its contest too early in the election season, and Clinton was the only major Democratic contender whose name appeared on the ballot.

Even so, roughly 70 percent of Michigan’s African-American voters — a group that makes up a quarter of Michigan’s Democratic electorate — did not cast their votes for Clinton, choosing the “uncommitted” option instead. Yet these voters weren’t uncommitted at all: in fact, according to CNN exit polls, they overwhelmingly favored Barack Obama, whose name did not appear on the ballot.

Had Obama’s name been on the Michigan ballot, CNN exit polls show that he would have won an overwhelming 73 percent of the African-American vote, in contrast to 22 percent who say they would have voted for Clinton under those circumstances. If South Carolina’s large African-American community votes as Michigan’s, Hillary may not be feeling much ‘southern hospitality’ in that state.

The most recent South Carolina polls are all over the map, showing Obama winning by anywhere from 5 to 20 points. But the trend lines show that Clinton’s support in that state has fluctuated within a small band over the last eleven months while Obama has steadily climbed. Thus, an Obama win would likely reflect enthusiasm for him rather than antipathy for Clinton.

About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.

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