Outside the Beltway

New Hampshire Primary Results – McCain, Clinton Win

James Joyner · Tuesday, January 8, 2008 · 5 comments

Drudge has the following as of 746 Eastern:

OBAMA 36; CLINTON 37; EDWARDS 17; RICHARDSON 4; KUCINICH 2…
MCCAIN 38; ROMNEY 29; HUCKABEE 11; PAUL 8; GIULIANI 9; THOMPSON 1…

ABC News is running real-time results. With 8% of precincts in, they have it:

Clinton 38%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 4%, Kucinich 2%

McCain 37%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%, Thompson 2%

I’ll update occasionally but, in honor of the occasion, will be watching West Wing reruns on DVD with my wife in between checking on the results.

Compare the results as they come in with New Hampshire Primary Predictions from myself, Dave Schuler, Steven Taylor, and others.

UPDATE (2012): ABC News is projecting John McCain as the winner, presumably based on exit polling, with only 11% of the precincts counted.

The results thus far:

Clinton 38%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 2%

McCain 37%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 9%, Thompson 1%, Hunter 1%

I haven’t the foggiest idea which precincts are in. If Clinton’s lead holds, though, it would be a monumental upset and totally change the momentum of the race.

Update (Dave Schuler)

If you’re interested, you can follow the county-by-county returns. Here for Democrats. Here for Republicans. Only a couple of counties have reported in so far.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 2048): The latest results, with 21% of precincts reporting, have Clinton’s lead widening:

Clinton 40%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 4%, Kucinich 2%

McCain 37%, Romney 28%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 9%, Thompson 1%, Hunter 1%

If this holds, a second Clinton will be a “Comeback Kid” out of New Hampshire. Dave has kindly posted the county-by-county results but, alas, I know nothing of historic voting patterns in them, so they’re of no avail to me.

UPDATE (Dodd – 2131): With 43% reporting Hillary!’s lead is now a mere 2%:

Clinton 39%, Obama 37%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 1%

McCain 38%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%, Thompson 1%, Hunter 0%

If Obama overtakes her, Hillary!’s campaign will be all but on life support. Even if she holds on for a narrow win, this is not a good result for her. Half the Democrat electorate in SC is black and winning lily-white Iowa and either a win or a close second in equally pale NH will establish beyond a shadow of a doubt that Obama is a first-tier candidate, removing any possible concern they might have had that voting for him would be a waste. She needed to blow him out here.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 2144): With 48% in, Clinton has regained a four point lead.

Clinton 40%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 1%

McCain 37%, Romney 31%, Huckabee 12%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 8%, Thompson 1%, Hunter 0%

My colleagues think I’m overhyping Clinton leading despite being an 8.3% underdog in the aggregate polls this morning. Perhaps. Remember, I was still predicting her to win the nomination even conceding a big loss here followed by one in South Carolina. These early primaries are about expectations, though, and she’ll get a huge bounce in that department if she can hold Obama off.

We’ve finally turned the television to election coverage. Ron Paul was giving a very odd speech to an incredibly enthusiastic crowd who clearly thought he was winning.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 2154): As I’ve noted in various posts over the years, my television consumption has been declining steadily since I started the blog — not to mention got married. I used to watch election night coverage wall-to-wall but mostly just follow things online these days.

One thing just jumped out at me: CNN is broadcasting in HD now and Fox News isn’t — at least so far as my DirecTV availability goes. Has Fox seriously not invested in decent technology? It’s hard to watch standard definition television anymore, especially on a big screen with 1080i resolution.

It’s currently 39-37 for Clinton, with 52% in.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 2213): With 62% in, it sure looks like Clinton is going to pull the upset:

Clinton 39%, Obama 36%, Edwards 17%, Richardson 5%, Kucinich 2%

McCain 37%, Romney 31%, Huckabee 11%, Giuliani 9%, Paul 9%, Thompson 1%, Hunter 1%

In terms of my predictions, I’m going to be way off on the 1-2 for the Democrats. Otherwise, I got them right. Unless Paul has a late surge, my prediction of him edging Giuliani will be off slightly; I should have gone with the polls rather than factoring in an “enthusiastic followers” bonus.

UPDATE (Alex Knapp – 2227): One thing worth noting right now are the exit poll results, which you can see updated at CNN here. These results definitely match the media narrative of the Clinton-Obama race. Older, less educated people with lower incomes are breaking for Clinton, while those with higher incomes and levels of education are breaking for Obama. Interestingly enough, to me anyway, is that Obama is leading among weekly churchgoers AND those who never go to church, while Clinton is taking the “occasionally religious” crowed (which I take to be Catholics, and indeed Clinton does lead among Catholics). I think that WHO shows up to the polls is definitely going to affect the outcome. One demographic not covered by the polls, however, is race, since over 95% of the Democratic voters in New Hampshire are white.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 1033): The AP is declaring Clinton the winner based on exit polling. CNN is still saying it’s too close to call.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 1046): CNN couldn’t wait any longer: They’ve projected Clinton the winner.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 1048): Barack Obama just congratulated Clinton on “her hard fought victory.”

Interestingly, ABC, which projected McCain as the winner very early, has yet to follow suit. With 72% of the precincts in, though, she’s up nearly 6,000 votes and maintains a 39-36 lead.

UPDATE (James Joyner – 1050): ABC has joined the club. Ironically, if the projections hold, both Clinton and Obama will walk away with the same number of delegates: 8.

On the GOP side, McCain gets 6 and Romney gets the other 3. (Remember, the two parties have very different nominating procedures; there are tons more delegates on the Democratic side.)

UPDATE (Richard Gardner – 0230 EST):
Having the advantage of a West Coast time zone, the late night (early morning for DC) latest with 96% of the vote tabulated is (CNN):

Dem
Clinton 39% and 9 NH Delegates
Obama 37% and 9 delegates
That means a tie delegate-wise; No “winner” despite headlines to the contrary
Edwards 17% and 4

Rep
McCain 37% and 7
Romney 32% and 4
Huckabee 11% and 1
Paul 8% and zero

All other aspirants get zero tied-delegates. Started to say zero to the Huckster, but he got one as I was typing this. And as in most states, about a third of the actual delegates to the conventions are state party appointed/determined, and are not subject to the primary voting/caucuses. Example, the heads of the state parties are delegates to their parties’ conventions independent of the Primary vote. Their Congressman are delegates to their Party’s convention too.

This horse race is by no means finished. The lead-up to the first Tuesday in Feb will be, well, something. Lots of pontifications from the media, chattering classes (to include talk radio), and the candidates.