A Quick Super Tuesday Prediction
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Dave Schuler | Monday, February 4, 2008 |
I assume that James will have a longer, better reasoned post on this subject up later tonight or tomorrow. However, since I’ll be working tomorrow as an election judge as I have for the last twenty years or so, I won’t have the time to tack my predictions about the outcomes of tomorrow’s primaries to the end of his post nor will I have Internet connectivity for most of the day to do it with so I’ll put a few quick predictions here.
On the Democratic side I expect Hillary Clinton to do very well, taking 50% or more of the available delegates, at least 1,100. That’s as I’ve been predicting all along: when all the dust is settled I continue to expect that Sen. Clinton will be the Democratic Party’s nominee for the presidency. That’s not my preference but it’s what I continue to think will happen. Sen. Obama will capture the rest with a few going to the other (mostly withdrawn) candidates. Keep in mind that most of the superdelegates who account for something like 20% of all of the Democratic delegates are committed to Clinton. If it looks like she’s going down to defeat, it’s possible they could bolt en masse under the definition of leadership in which a leader is someone who figures out which direction the parade is going and gets out in front of it but at this point that doesn’t look too likely.
I’ve found it difficult to understand the reasoning of rank and file Republicans for the last ten years or so but on the Republican side I think that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee may well do a little better than people think but it won’t do them much good because of the winner-take-all formula used in Republican primaries. Huckabee and Romney will each pick up 100 or so delegates while John McCain picks up 1,500 or more.
It won’t be over tomorrow in either party. The Democratic Party has institutionalized brokered conventions by the use of the superdelegates. Even conventions that are nominally decided by the end of the primary season are de facto brokered by those 796 superdelegates.
I doubt that the Republican contest will be over, either. Even with the big wins that John McCain should be expecting, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul can keep right on campaigning.
Jeebers, this is a long primary season. Haven’t we suffered enough?
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Nice post!
It hasn't been a long primary season, however. In fact, just a month since Iowa.
We did have a long pre-primary period, but not that much different than earlier years. What's different is no annointed candidate on either side, making the nomination contests truly meaningful.
When all is said and done, frontloading has worked well, and tomorrow's elections around the country will indeed be super.
I think it'll be tough for McCain to pick up 1500 delegates today, since there are only just over 1000 at stake.
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You're preference is Sen. Obama? May I ask, Dave, WHY??? He doesn't seem to stand for ANYthing. And don't give me that "hope" thing, or that he is the only candidate that can win. Tell me why. He's an empty suit! But...you seem like a reasonably intelligent person. So again, why?