Huckabee Praying for Brokered Convention
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James Joyner | Friday, February 22, 2008 |
Mike Huckabee knows he can’t beat John McCain in the primaries but thinks he might be able to win a brokered convention with a little help from Texas.
In an interview with 1200 WOAI news during his swing through Texas, longshot Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee outlined a strategy which has him not winning the GOP nomination outright, but pushing the nomination to the September Republican National Convention, which he says will turn to him as the most ‘conservative alternative.’
The ‘brokered convention’ plan is in stark contrast to Huckabee’s previous sunny predictions of a sweep to victory in the primaries and caucuses on the shoulders of adoring family values conservatives.
Huckabee said his ‘brokered convention’ strategy is predicated on a victory in Texas, the country’s largest Republican state. “We think Texas is an important state,” Huckabee told me. “We know how important it is to win Texas.” Huckabee says with an upset win in Texas, and a win in the Ohio Republican primary the same day, Huckabee could deny front runner John McCain the nomination in the primaries.
“If we win Texas, I think it changes the dynamics of this race. It could well go all the way to the convention. If the convention delegates pick the president, chances are they would pick the most conservative. I would be the one they would end up picking, if that’s the criteria.”
McCain is less than 200 delegates away and Mitt Romney has already instructed more than that many of his delegates to vote for McCain. It’s just incredibly unlikely that McCain won’t win the nomination outright.
If, however, the allegations of adultery and improper dealings with a lobbyist leveled in yesterday’s NYT hit piece have legs or some other event causes pledged delegates to break their vow and vote for someone other than McCain, it’s virtually inconceivable that Huckabee would be the beneficiary. If the party’s leadership takes the nomination into their own hands, a Mitt Romney or some dark horse candidate would be the more likely choice than the divisive Huckabee.
The irony here is that Huckabee is down to the Hillary Clinton Strategy: Win Texas and Ohio and hope to steal it at the convention.
AllahPundit sees a different parallel:
This marks the point, I think, where he’s actually started to believe his own “never say die” rhetoric as a way of coping with the fact that the ship is going down. It’s like Klaus Kinski on the raft at the end of “Aguirre” telling the spider monkeys about his plan to rule the world.
He provides a handy video clip for those of us who have never heard of, let alone seen, “Aguirre.”
via Memeorandum
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia.
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"If, however, the allegations of adultery and improper dealings with a lobbyist leveled in yesterday’s NYT hit piece have legs"
This should qualify as at least one leg.
I don't think Huckabee is going to get the nomination through the primaries or through a brokered convention. But IF it did turn into a brokered convention and IF Huckabee was nominated through that brokered convention (two mighty big IFs) and the convention was run according to the rules, then I would have a hard time saying he "stole" it at the convention.
Let me give you an example of how this could work. If McCain was hit by a bus, the convention would immediately go up for grabs. Romney would be re-calling his delegates. Everyone who was out and a few who were never in would start making their case for why they should be the nominee. If out of that chaos Huckabee walked out as the nominee, that would not have stolen the nomination.
Not to mention - the stronger Huck stays during the primaries, the better position he's in to demand serious payback (possibly Veep?) from whoever does wind up as the nominee. And since the chances of any GOP nom getting into office in '08 keep looking smaller every day, it also sets him up as a presumptive nominee, or at least major power broker, for '12.
some dark horse candidate
How about Fred Thompson?
You've never heard of "Aguirre, Wrath of God?" How uncouth. Put better use of your Netflix account and get some good movies, will you?
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