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	<title>Comments on: 2008 Election Prediction: McCain vs. Obama</title>
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		<title>By: Scott</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-253210</link>
		<dc:creator>Scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Dec 2007 06:33:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/12/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/#comment-253210</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m voting for the McCain/Obama 2008 ticket.

Because, taken as people, this is the pair we want for the President/Vice president, respectively.  McCain is President, that&#039;s what everyone wants, even if they don&#039;t know it yet.  Obama, we want you as Vice President.  Maybe President some other time. 

Yes, it just so happens this would combine a Republican and Democrat.  And why not?

America, The United States, and The World would be thrilled to have McCain and Obama as the President and Vice President of the United Sates of America as soon as possible.   It&#039;s what we need for the best results.

I&#039;m serious, no bluff.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I'm voting for the McCain/Obama 2008 ticket.</p>
<p>Because, taken as people, this is the pair we want for the President/Vice president, respectively.  McCain is President, that's what everyone wants, even if they don't know it yet.  Obama, we want you as Vice President.  Maybe President some other time. </p>
<p>Yes, it just so happens this would combine a Republican and Democrat.  And why not?</p>
<p>America, The United States, and The World would be thrilled to have McCain and Obama as the President and Vice President of the United Sates of America as soon as possible.   It's what we need for the best results.</p>
<p>I'm serious, no bluff.</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Schuler</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-252962</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Schuler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2007 20:01:21 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>There are more registered voters in the city of Chicago than there are in the state of Arkansas.  More people (in Illinois) have already voted for Barack Obama than have voted for Mike Huckabee.

That says little about either&#039;s experience, suitability for office, or ability to get votes.  The most you can say at this point is that we really don&#039;t know.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are more registered voters in the city of Chicago than there are in the state of Arkansas.  More people (in Illinois) have already voted for Barack Obama than have voted for Mike Huckabee.</p>
<p>That says little about either's experience, suitability for office, or ability to get votes.  The most you can say at this point is that we really don't know.</p>
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		<title>By: Rey</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-252944</link>
		<dc:creator>Rey</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 16 Dec 2007 18:37:35 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Huckabee will win the nomination and presidency. The antihuckabee vote will split romney, rudy and mccain. Huckabee  is honest andlikable and cares about the poor. He gets my vote  and I am a democrat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Huckabee will win the nomination and presidency. The antihuckabee vote will split romney, rudy and mccain. Huckabee  is honest andlikable and cares about the poor. He gets my vote  and I am a democrat.</p>
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		<title>By: Triumph</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-251454</link>
		<dc:creator>Triumph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Dec 2007 02:24:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/12/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/#comment-251454</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I can see why you would say Huckabee is unprepared to be President, but surely Obama falls into the same category. Neither of them have ANY foreign policy experience; and Obama is a relative newbie with little established record.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Yeah, but the difference is that Obama is not a complete idiot.  Anyone who is on law review at Harvard, teaches con law at Univ. of Chicago is pretty sharp.

Huckabee went to some unaccredited baptist college in Arkadelphia and has the &quot;logic&quot; to prove it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I can see why you would say Huckabee is unprepared to be President, but surely Obama falls into the same category. Neither of them have ANY foreign policy experience; and Obama is a relative newbie with little established record.</p></blockquote>
<p>Yeah, but the difference is that Obama is not a complete idiot.  Anyone who is on law review at Harvard, teaches con law at Univ. of Chicago is pretty sharp.</p>
<p>Huckabee went to some unaccredited baptist college in Arkadelphia and has the "logic" to prove it.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Schuyler</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-251215</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Schuyler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2007 19:05:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I can see why you would say Huckabee is unprepared to be President, but surely Obama falls into the same category. Neither of them have ANY foreign policy experience; and Obama is a relative newbie with little established record. Perhaps that&#039;s a good thing for him because it keeps his negatives low: He hasn&#039;t done much. On the other hand, neither has HRC, who has the same longevity record in the Senate as Obama. the only reason she is popular is because she is the wife of a former president. 

I accept your scenario as written, but once you take a look at the nominees&#039; records, McCain is the one who can point to a solid record of experience. The crucible of his life has made him who he is. Nails say they are &#039;as tough as McCain&#039; and that&#039;s why, in the quiet moment with your own soul and secret ballot, you will choose McCain over Obama. You know we need a solid and proven leader in the White House. It&#039;s OK. You don&#039;t have to tell.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I can see why you would say Huckabee is unprepared to be President, but surely Obama falls into the same category. Neither of them have ANY foreign policy experience; and Obama is a relative newbie with little established record. Perhaps that's a good thing for him because it keeps his negatives low: He hasn't done much. On the other hand, neither has HRC, who has the same longevity record in the Senate as Obama. the only reason she is popular is because she is the wife of a former president. </p>
<p>I accept your scenario as written, but once you take a look at the nominees' records, McCain is the one who can point to a solid record of experience. The crucible of his life has made him who he is. Nails say they are 'as tough as McCain' and that's why, in the quiet moment with your own soul and secret ballot, you will choose McCain over Obama. You know we need a solid and proven leader in the White House. It's OK. You don't have to tell.</p>
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		<title>By: Tano</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-251163</link>
		<dc:creator>Tano</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2007 17:14:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/12/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/#comment-251163</guid>
		<description>Alex,

I think your analysis was pretty solid, but there is a point re. the &quot;second-choice&quot; issue.

I think it mainly comes into play when, in a particular caucus room, there is not 15% support for a particular candidate. The supporters of those candidates then move to their second choices. Therefore, the interesting question is not who Clinton or Edwards&#039; supporters have as their second choice - those candidates will probably get over the threshold most everywhere - the real question is who is the second choice of the Biden, Dodd etc supporters.

I agree that Obama&#039;s path to the nomination is getting wider by the day. Lots and lots of people in the party are less-than-thrilled about hillary, and to the extent that she loses the inevitability and electability mantles (nothing like losing the first three contests to do that), there might be a stampede toward Obama.

On the GOP side, I agree that there is probably a deep panic setting in to the party establishment as they sense that, perhaps within the next six weeks, the party will have Huck as the presumptive nominee. Rightly or wrongly, the &quot;smart&quot; people see nothing but utter disaster for the party down that road. So there is going to have to be an intervention.

But who? Believe it or not, there are still some who see Fred as the ideal across-the-board conservative, if only they could find the right combination of drugs to last him all the way to November. Rudy is probably toast - with the rise of Huck the socons are sending a pretty clear message - the nominee is not going to be someone that they dont approve of.

It really comes down to whether the party grownups will place their bets on Mitt or McCain as the only choice to save the party from Huck - and of course, the question of whether that will work.

I suspect they will find Mitt the more attractive candidate - given his resources, youth, and the fact that he has not pissed off so many of them over the years, as McCain has. Will it work? Who knows!

Maybe Barack will spend the spring and summer acting presidential while awaiting his coronation while the GOP tears itself to shreds on the way to a brokered convention. In that case, all bets are off, except for the November bet, where Obama would have to be favored.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Alex,</p>
<p>I think your analysis was pretty solid, but there is a point re. the "second-choice" issue.</p>
<p>I think it mainly comes into play when, in a particular caucus room, there is not 15% support for a particular candidate. The supporters of those candidates then move to their second choices. Therefore, the interesting question is not who Clinton or Edwards' supporters have as their second choice - those candidates will probably get over the threshold most everywhere - the real question is who is the second choice of the Biden, Dodd etc supporters.</p>
<p>I agree that Obama's path to the nomination is getting wider by the day. Lots and lots of people in the party are less-than-thrilled about hillary, and to the extent that she loses the inevitability and electability mantles (nothing like losing the first three contests to do that), there might be a stampede toward Obama.</p>
<p>On the GOP side, I agree that there is probably a deep panic setting in to the party establishment as they sense that, perhaps within the next six weeks, the party will have Huck as the presumptive nominee. Rightly or wrongly, the "smart" people see nothing but utter disaster for the party down that road. So there is going to have to be an intervention.</p>
<p>But who? Believe it or not, there are still some who see Fred as the ideal across-the-board conservative, if only they could find the right combination of drugs to last him all the way to November. Rudy is probably toast - with the rise of Huck the socons are sending a pretty clear message - the nominee is not going to be someone that they dont approve of.</p>
<p>It really comes down to whether the party grownups will place their bets on Mitt or McCain as the only choice to save the party from Huck - and of course, the question of whether that will work.</p>
<p>I suspect they will find Mitt the more attractive candidate - given his resources, youth, and the fact that he has not pissed off so many of them over the years, as McCain has. Will it work? Who knows!</p>
<p>Maybe Barack will spend the spring and summer acting presidential while awaiting his coronation while the GOP tears itself to shreds on the way to a brokered convention. In that case, all bets are off, except for the November bet, where Obama would have to be favored.</p>
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		<title>By: Triumph</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-251126</link>
		<dc:creator>Triumph</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2007 15:53:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;I honestly believe that she would not be campaigning for Obama if she didn’t already think that the momentum was on his side–she has too much to lose already by actively getting involved in politics, and backing a losing candidate is only going to make that worse.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Brilliant--Oprah is cited as the new Karl Rove.  Remember, this is the same person who supported Jessie Jackson in &#039;88.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>I honestly believe that she would not be campaigning for Obama if she didn&rsquo;t already think that the momentum was on his side–she has too much to lose already by actively getting involved in politics, and backing a losing candidate is only going to make that worse.</p></blockquote>
<p>Brilliant--Oprah is cited as the new Karl Rove.  Remember, this is the same person who supported Jessie Jackson in '88.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Knapp</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-251101</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Knapp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2007 15:01:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/12/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/#comment-251101</guid>
		<description>Bryan - In a McCain v. Obama matchup, I have to say Obama. That said, I think it would be close.

Tom - For the Democratic Iowa caucuses, my understanding is that second choices matter quite a bit.  I&#039;m basing my &quot;Obama as second choice&quot; argument on his high favorables and steady increases in Iowa polling.  

And I don&#039;t have a bias against Huckabee.  I&#039;ve looked at him closely and find him ridculous and unprepared.  A bias would mean that I dismissed him offhand.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bryan - In a McCain v. Obama matchup, I have to say Obama. That said, I think it would be close.</p>
<p>Tom - For the Democratic Iowa caucuses, my understanding is that second choices matter quite a bit.  I'm basing my "Obama as second choice" argument on his high favorables and steady increases in Iowa polling.  </p>
<p>And I don't have a bias against Huckabee.  I've looked at him closely and find him ridculous and unprepared.  A bias would mean that I dismissed him offhand.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-250922</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2007 07:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Neither Obama nor McCain will win.  I&#039;ll bet you a beer.  Very weak analysis and clear bias against Huckabee and non-understanding of how Iowa works (&#039;second place&#039; argument) or about how Edwards and Clinton supporters think about Obama (many not very highly).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Neither Obama nor McCain will win.  I'll bet you a beer.  Very weak analysis and clear bias against Huckabee and non-understanding of how Iowa works ('second place' argument) or about how Edwards and Clinton supporters think about Obama (many not very highly).</p>
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		<title>By: bryan</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008_election_prediction_mccain_vs_obama/comment-page-1/#comment-250908</link>
		<dc:creator>bryan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Dec 2007 06:54:09 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>so who will win the gen el?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>so who will win the gen el?</p>
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