And why not? The GOP candidate (moderate - says who?) supports the wacko Kyoto protocol fraud, detests law when it's about border control, loves to kill human embryos for medical experimentation, doesn't believe in free political speech, fights conservatives in his base and those appointed as candidates for the Supreme Court.

He does think an extremist like Hillary will make a good president though.

Really geeky

A really good site once the primaries end.

Yetanotherjohn makes some good points, but it could be a mistake to place too much stock in the poll numbers. Even if they accurately reflect what people think today, what people "definitely" think does change.

I think everyone agrees that a bitter Clinton nomination would sink Hillary. But could she take down Obama, too -- or help him?

The press has been fawning on Obama, but remember, the press is not believed by large portions of the population.

McCain starts with 34% "definitely for him". Obama has a similar 34% and Clinton a 32%. That is the standard 1/3 for/against. But look at the middle. McCain has the full center to play with. Obama has already lost 10% of the center and Clinton 13% of the center. Now this is early days. The republicans haven't started pointing out some of Obama's votes that the left will be proud of but the center will reject. Even so, when you start needing 8 out of every 9 'up for grabs' vote to get a majority, you have an up hill climb. Don't forget, there is a political correctness incentive to say that you are open to the idea of the first Black president or the first female president. There is no such restraint on expressing opinions about an old white male. So these poll numbers may be hiding an even larger antipathy for the democratic nominees.

The MSM will be in the tank for Obama and the election will be decided on a state by state basis. Even so, this is a center right country and if the democrats continue to nominate hard left candidates, we may not see another democratic presidential majority vote for another 30 years.

Traditionally the GOP picks its members the DNC picks theirs, and they are nominated in pairs one GOP and one DNC, the Dems want to control who the GOP nominee is.

I don't think this is a Bush tantrum, sounds more like a dem one to me.

But you are dead on that this pretty much hamstrings McCain.

Keep in mind, this is the gun-to-my-head-at-a-way-early-date scenario. I expect it to change a lot (and frequently) between now and November.

As for McCain, I doubt the lobbyist thing will really keep Repubs from holding their noses & voting for him (unless some REALLY unsavory sex things come out as well). The FEC issues, however, could truly cripple him in the remainder of the primary season. Sometime this week, he's likely to hit a hard limit - where federal law prohibits him from spending any more money in the primaries. He can't get released form that limit unless the FEC meets to approve it, and it can't meet until they have a quorum, and they can't get a quorum because Bush keeps throwing tantrums about the board appointments. While I don't think it's deliberate - it relies too much on McCain's hubris and campaign staff incompetence - it would be hilarious if his run was crippled by Bush's political maneuverings.

Yesterday's LAT and widely picked up elsewhere.

I wasn't calling him a liar, just didn't see it. :)

I note with a smile that fellow native Missourian Steve Green puts Missouri in the winner's column under both of his scenarios, maintaining Missouri's tradition of picking the winner, a tradition that's held up pretty well since the American Civil War.

Fair weather friends indeed. :P

I think that in the Republicans' best case scenario they hold onto both Ohio and Florida while in the Democrats' best case scenario they take both Ohio and Florida.

Agreed. They were swing states in each of the last two elections and I don't think they're suddenly in the "gimme" category with non-polarizing candidates representing both parties. He's probably right that Ohio's Republican party is in sad shape but that often doesn't matter in presidential races.