Survey USA polled 600 voters in all 50 states and then drew up electoral maps based on the data they received. Both polls showing whether it was Obama or Hillary......

For Obama, he has 4 states with 20%+ margins for 35 EV (lets add the unpolled DC into the category for a total of 38 EV). These are his safe beyond a total collapse of the campaign seats. He has NY at 15% (31 EV), four states at 14% (29 EV) and two 11% states (65EV). This gives him 160 EV which are pretty safe. Note that Ohio, which went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 is in this category (20 EV).

He also has two 10%, one 9%, three 8% and two 7% states that are also pretty safe but given the earliness of the poll, registered vs likely voters, etc. can't just be assumed (total 73 EV). Note that one is Minnesota (7% 10EV) which could turn if Pawlenty was the VP pick. So in all, he has 233 EV that are pretty safe or better. Not bad. Note that three states that went for Bush in 2000 or 2004 are in this category (21 EV). Nothing says Ohio and these states can't change, but there is a change involved.

North Dakota 5% (3EV), Nevada 4% (4 EV), Michigan 2% (17 EV), NH 1% (4 EV) and Virginia 0% (13 EV) all have to be taken with a big grain of salt. Total is 42 EV. Note that there are three states in this mix that when for Bush in 2000 or 2004 (11 EV). Add in the 2 split decision points for Nebraska to get the 280. All in all 52 EV are states that switched from 2000 or 2004.

Now look at McCain vs Obama.

Three states at 20%+ for a total of 21 EV. Four states at 15% to 19% for 28 EV. Six more states in the 11% to 14% for 49 EV. Four states in the 6% to 9% range for 31 EV. Using the same standard as above, this gives McCain 129 pretty safe or better EV.

Alaska (5%, 3 EV), PA (5%, 21 EV), SD (4% 3EV), SC (3% 8EV), Nebraska (3% and 3EV in a split decision), Florida (3%, 27EV), Texas (2% 34EV), NC (2% 15 EV) and NJ (0% 15 EV) for a total of 129 EV.

This would seem to indicate McCain support is a lot weaker. But does anyone really think Texas is going to be a 2% margin state? The only two states that McCain is getting that Bush didn't get are PA (21 EV) and NJ (15 EV).

So all in all, that is Obama taking away 54 EV (including the 2 from ND) in 9 states and McCain taking away 36 EV in two states. All in all, there are 173 EV in the +/- 5% category, indicating that the election could go either way.

Now lets look at Clinton.

She has one state at 23% (NY 31EV), Two states at 17% and 18% (16EV), three states at 11% (47 EV), three states at 10% (65EV), two at 9% (37 EV) and one at 6% (4 EV). Add in DC and this puts her at 203 EV in the pretty safe category. Arkansas (11% 6EV), Ohio (11% 20 EV) and Florida (9% and 27 EV) are the switched states.

NJ (5% 15EV), Delaware (5% 3 EV), WV (4% 5EV), Minnesota (4% 10 EV), HI (4% 4 EV), WI (4% 10 EV), NM (1% 5 EV) and PA (0% 21 EV). Total is 73 EV. Two are switch states (10 EV).

McCain has seven states from 20% to 39% (38 EV), ND (19% 3 EV), Indiana (17% 11EV), Arizona (14% 10 EV) and SD (11% 3 EV) for 27 EV.

Three 10% states (26 EV), three 9% states (25EV), three 8% states (16 EV), NC at 7% (15 EV) and three 6% states (49 EV). And you seriously have to be smoking something to think TX is within 6% for Clinton. Total is 105 EV. Two states are switches from 2000/2004 (OR 6% 7EV) and NH (8% 4 EV).

CO (5% 9 EV), IA (5% 7 EV), MO (4% 11 EV), WA (2% 11 EV), TN (1% 11 EV) and MI (0% 17 EV) for a total of 66 EV. Three are switches from 2000/2004 (OR 65 7 EV, IA 5% 7 EV and MI (0% 11 EV).

All in all, Clinton flips 5 states for 63EV and McCain flips four states for 42 EV. 139 EV are in the +/- 5% category.

Bottom line is Obama vs. McCain have 173 EV in the +/- 5% category and 71 EV in the flip from 2000/2004 category. Clinton vs. McCain have 139 EV in the +/- 5% category and 93EV in the flip from 2000/2004 category. So both of these races are shown to be in contention with the Obama having more marginal EV in contention.

Okay, McGuire, I'll bite: how has Hillary "clearly shown a total contempt for our military"?

You have examples, obviously - please share them.

1st CD- 59-36 for Bush
2nd CD- 57-38 for Bush
3rd CD- 71-27 for Bush

So the chances of Obama getting two electoral votes from Nebraska are about as likely as my getting elected to Congress one day. ZERO

2004

Bush 62 Kerry 35

2000

Bush 61 Gore 33

1996

Dole 47 Clinton 40

1992

Bush 44 Clinton 32

Do I need to go back further to show ND isn't going to go Democratic in 2008?

I do think the survey highlights some things I've been suggesting for some time.

Unless you believe that the survey dramatically understates the results for Democratic candidates, the election in November won't result in a landslide victory for Democrats, electoral or otherwise. The election looks more as though it will be much like the last four: a very narrow victory reflecting a country with sharply divided opinions and candidates that don't claim overwhelming support.

Note the states that the survey suggests are in some degree of play: Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, Kansas, Iowas, Arkansas, Michigan, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida. Like you I don't believe it. Note also the states the survey suggests aren't in play, specifically, Ohio. I think it's more likely that some of those states e.g. New Jersey aren't actually in play and some e.g. Ohio are.

Finally, this survey is of registered voters not likely voters and the ratio of registered to likely varies by state. I think we should be cautious about drawing too many conclusions just yet.

I continue to believe that external events not under the control of the campaigns, regardless of who the eventual victor on the Democratic side may be, will be likely to decide this election and I think that the closeness suggested by the survey supports that view.

But I won't vote for Hillary over McCain for one simple reason: the military. Hillary has clearly shown a total contempt for our military and it's my opinion that we owe them too much to inflict upon them someone like Hillary.