You seem to have missed my point. It’s not who people will be voting for, it’s who will be voting.

Exactly.

he thought of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House and Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader should be enough for any American who has the right to vote to vote Republican.

They are aware enough to know that a shift to a Pelosi-led House would not be constructive

most Americans do not want Nancy Pelosi to become the speaker of the house.

I'm curious as to when Pelosi became the new GOP boogieman. Seriously, do you have anything you can cite to backup this common knowledge that American's are afraid of Pelosi becoming Speaker of the House? I would hazard to say that the number of people who can name the House Minority Leader are only slightly less than can name the current Speaker of the House (at least before the Foley that is, now more people know the current Speaker). Is this something you guys actually believe, or is it just pre-emptive fearmongering?

Follow that another step, Michael: how many Republicans or Democrats truly believe their congressman “is corrupt, or inept, or part of a failed policy?”
...
I just don’t see the Democrats closing the sale on this when it comes time for people to cast their ballots.

You seem to have missed my point. It's not who people will be voting for, it's who will be voting. If I believe my party is failing me, even if I don't blame my local congressman, I'm still less likely to go vote. High turnout is generally good for an incumbent, but disillusionment in the GOP may cause lower than usual turnout in their base, and larger than usual turnout in their opposition. This game isn't about selling the ideas, it's about motivating people to cast a vote in the first place.

It is painfully obvious that the situation with Foley and Reynolds is a cover-up for disgusting behavior. That behavior has nothing to do with sexuality, it has to do with corruption. I cannot wait to see what happens in the next few weeks. Stop hiding behind sexuality and politics. A lie is a lie, and corruption is corruption. I deeply applaud the FBI, and I cannot wait for the truth to be revealed and justice served. What in the hell is the matter with most of you people defending horrible behavior. This has nothing to do with a 16 year old. This has to do with corrupt real estate dealings in NY and Florida amongst a few things.

I

They are aware enough to know that a shift to a Pelosi-led House would not be constructive for the following issues:

Taxes; national security; war on terror; general national stability.

I do not think the polls accurately measure that kind of consistency.

It's become more and more obvious that Republican apologists are going to be able to get away with blaming the upcoming "stunning" defeat on the Foley "scandal," rather than the fact that large chunks of its base and other normally......

How many Republicans would rather skip lunch, or leave home early, to vote for someone they think is corrupt, or inept, or part of a failed policy?

Follow that another step, Michael: how many Republicans or Democrats truly believe their congressman "is corrupt, or inept, or part of a failed policy?"

There's an oft-stated reason for why 99% of incumbents seeking re-election traditionally win re-election.

I just don't see the Democrats closing the sale on this when it comes time for people to cast their ballots. The only people inclined to think their congressman is tainted by the Foley scandal are those in Foley's district -- who may already know that voting for Foley doesn't mean re-electing Foley.

James Joyner thinks so....

Conservatives won't vote for the Stalinist Democrats, but they probably won't vote for the Republicans either. They will vote for third-party candidates or they will stay home and watch Judge Judy.

I did see an article in the LA about a GOP candidate in Iowa who's saying the right things and airing TV ads that reminds folks of Ronald Reagan. John Cox is the first Republican to actually declare his candidacy. His TV spots are online on his website

Never too early to shop around for a new president.

And your analysis is spot-on.

All Bush has to do is make a strong case for staged withdrawal from Iraq within two weeks of the election and Iraq will diminish as a negative.