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	<title>Comments on: Al Qaeda Getting Stronger</title>
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		<title>By: Bithead</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-352136</link>
		<dc:creator>Bithead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 17:36:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-352136</guid>
		<description>To a point, if you&#039;re after actual numbers. The trends, however, up until the time we actually DID react, are not all that hard to follow.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To a point, if you're after actual numbers. The trends, however, up until the time we actually DID react, are not all that hard to follow.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-352010</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 14:36:57 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Well, that and how many would have died had we not acted.&lt;/blockquote&gt;Which again, is nothing but speculation.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Well, that and how many would have died had we not acted.</p></blockquote>
<p>Which again, is nothing but speculation.</p>
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		<title>By: Bithead</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-352009</link>
		<dc:creator>Bithead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 14:31:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-352009</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;That, by the way, is the only relevant measure.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

Well, that and how many would have died had we not acted.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>That, by the way, is the only relevant measure.</p></blockquote>
<p>Well, that and how many would have died had we not acted.</p>
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		<title>By: Bob</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-352001</link>
		<dc:creator>Bob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 14:07:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-352001</guid>
		<description>Unless you kill every member of AQ then it exists.  Beware the relative comparisons since this year if it had one member and next year it has two then the headline reads &quot;Al Quaeda strength doubles&quot;.  Compared to 9/10/2001 Al Qaeda now is much less capable.  If the baseline is 2005 then they are probably more capable today.  Until we go into the tribal regions of Pakistan they will use the proven VC strategy of late 1960&#039;s - attack, be beaten, declare victory via press release, limp back into sanctuary country, refit, and repeat.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Unless you kill every member of AQ then it exists.  Beware the relative comparisons since this year if it had one member and next year it has two then the headline reads "Al Quaeda strength doubles".  Compared to 9/10/2001 Al Qaeda now is much less capable.  If the baseline is 2005 then they are probably more capable today.  Until we go into the tribal regions of Pakistan they will use the proven VC strategy of late 1960's - attack, be beaten, declare victory via press release, limp back into sanctuary country, refit, and repeat.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351975</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 13:16:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351975</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;That, by the way, is the only relevant measure.&lt;/blockquote&gt;It&#039;s also pure speculation.  I could just as easily say that if we had not been fighting them, Al Qaeda would have been completely disbanded by now.  

See, it&#039;s easy to say what could have been, when there is no way to actually test the hypothesis.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>That, by the way, is the only relevant measure.</p></blockquote>
<p>It's also pure speculation.  I could just as easily say that if we had not been fighting them, Al Qaeda would have been completely disbanded by now.  </p>
<p>See, it's easy to say what could have been, when there is no way to actually test the hypothesis.</p>
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		<title>By: Beldar</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351808</link>
		<dc:creator>Beldar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 10:10:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351808</guid>
		<description>That, by the way, is the only relevant measure.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That, by the way, is the only relevant measure.</p>
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		<title>By: Beldar</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351805</link>
		<dc:creator>Beldar</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2008 10:09:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351805</guid>
		<description>Compared to what they would have been had we not been fighting them, al Qaeda has been getting progressively weaker.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Compared to what they would have been had we not been fighting them, al Qaeda has been getting progressively weaker.</p>
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		<title>By: glasnost</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351298</link>
		<dc:creator>glasnost</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 21:37:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351298</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Well, that’s a relief. But shouldn’t al Qaeda be getting progressively weaker? We’ve been fighting them on multiple fronts for over six years, after all.&lt;/i&gt;

When support for Al-Queida, and its infrastructure, passes a certain threshold of prevalence within a country, it becomes very hard to remove it surgically or cleanly. A lot of damage ends up being done to the body of the patient - meaning the society of the host country and its citizens individually. The body doesn&#039;t like being hurt.
Here the metaphor breaks down, because a human body doesn&#039;t begin to actively support its tumors because it dislikes its surgery.
AQ is still more popular in Pakistan than either us or the government. Unless they start engaging in community-level slaughter, that may not change.

There&#039;s a point here: we&#039;ll never beat AQI in Pakistan while its government is autocratic and unpopular and its citzens feel adversely affected by counter-terrorism operations. Pakistan&#039;s new government is right to try and reach peace with the tribes and affiliated militants. We need to be trying to kill and disrupt specific international terror plots, as well as Zawahiri himself - and otherwise focus on bringing peace between Pakistan and India. Without that forty-year cold war, Islamic militancy would be a lot less relevant.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Well, that&rsquo;s a relief. But shouldn&rsquo;t al Qaeda be getting progressively weaker? We&rsquo;ve been fighting them on multiple fronts for over six years, after all.</i></p>
<p>When support for Al-Queida, and its infrastructure, passes a certain threshold of prevalence within a country, it becomes very hard to remove it surgically or cleanly. A lot of damage ends up being done to the body of the patient - meaning the society of the host country and its citizens individually. The body doesn't like being hurt.<br />
Here the metaphor breaks down, because a human body doesn't begin to actively support its tumors because it dislikes its surgery.<br />
AQ is still more popular in Pakistan than either us or the government. Unless they start engaging in community-level slaughter, that may not change.</p>
<p>There's a point here: we'll never beat AQI in Pakistan while its government is autocratic and unpopular and its citzens feel adversely affected by counter-terrorism operations. Pakistan's new government is right to try and reach peace with the tribes and affiliated militants. We need to be trying to kill and disrupt specific international terror plots, as well as Zawahiri himself - and otherwise focus on bringing peace between Pakistan and India. Without that forty-year cold war, Islamic militancy would be a lot less relevant.</p>
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		<title>By: anjin-san</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351157</link>
		<dc:creator>anjin-san</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 19:42:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351157</guid>
		<description>Bin Laden has been able to tie our forces up in Iraq for years, simply by maintaining that Iraq is &quot;the central front&quot;.

It&#039;s a win for him on many levels. He ties up a large number of US military assets and impacts our ability to project power. His forces have a training  ground, where they have been able to assess our battle tactics and capabilities. Our presence in Iraq inflames Arab nationalism and does his recruiting for him. He sacrifices pawns in Iraq, and looses no sleep over it.

Meanwhile, our economy is bleeding. Keep in mind that Bin Laden has said that he wants to destroy our economy. He is not stupid, and he knows that he cannot defeat America by means of military force. 

Our country, which was completely unified by 9.11, is now bitterly divided by the war in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Al Qaeda has been able to rebuild. 

I wonder if Bush&#039;s nose is sore from having been led around by it for so long...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Bin Laden has been able to tie our forces up in Iraq for years, simply by maintaining that Iraq is "the central front".</p>
<p>It's a win for him on many levels. He ties up a large number of US military assets and impacts our ability to project power. His forces have a training  ground, where they have been able to assess our battle tactics and capabilities. Our presence in Iraq inflames Arab nationalism and does his recruiting for him. He sacrifices pawns in Iraq, and looses no sleep over it.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, our economy is bleeding. Keep in mind that Bin Laden has said that he wants to destroy our economy. He is not stupid, and he knows that he cannot defeat America by means of military force. </p>
<p>Our country, which was completely unified by 9.11, is now bitterly divided by the war in Iraq.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Al Qaeda has been able to rebuild. </p>
<p>I wonder if Bush's nose is sore from having been led around by it for so long...</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351151</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 19:25:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351151</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Not in Pakistan, no.&lt;/blockquote&gt;Occasionally we have, but you&#039;re right, without a concerted effort in Pakistan (either by NATO or Pakistani forces), we will only be able to attack what Al Qaeda decides to make available to us.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Not in Pakistan, no.</p></blockquote>
<p>Occasionally we have, but you're right, without a concerted effort in Pakistan (either by NATO or Pakistani forces), we will only be able to attack what Al Qaeda decides to make available to us.</p>
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		<title>By: Alex Knapp</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351135</link>
		<dc:creator>Alex Knapp</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 18:44:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351135</guid>
		<description>James,

You do realize that by posting this information, you&#039;re only emboldening al-Qaeda, right?  Why are you helping the terrorists, James?  Why?

After all, everybody knows that the proper way to approach information about terrorists in order to ensure an American victory is to close your eyes tight, put your fingers in your ears, and shout as loud as you can &quot;LALALALALAI&#039;MNOTLISTENINGLALALALA&quot;...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>James,</p>
<p>You do realize that by posting this information, you're only emboldening al-Qaeda, right?  Why are you helping the terrorists, James?  Why?</p>
<p>After all, everybody knows that the proper way to approach information about terrorists in order to ensure an American victory is to close your eyes tight, put your fingers in your ears, and shout as loud as you can "LALALALALAI'MNOTLISTENINGLALALALA"...</p>
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		<title>By: Bithead</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/comment-page-1/#comment-351112</link>
		<dc:creator>Bithead</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Apr 2008 17:55:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/04/al_qaeda_getting_stronger/#comment-351112</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Well, that’s a relief. But shouldn’t al Qaeda be getting progressively weaker? We’ve been fighting them on multiple fronts for over six years, after all. &lt;/blockquote&gt;

Not in Pakistan, no.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Well, that&rsquo;s a relief. But shouldn&rsquo;t al Qaeda be getting progressively weaker? We&rsquo;ve been fighting them on multiple fronts for over six years, after all. </p></blockquote>
<p>Not in Pakistan, no.</p>
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