Comments on: American Political Realignment?

By: SoloD

SoloD — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 16:18:53 +0000

Having read Barone's article now, I guess that my main argument is that I see Bush as more of a creation of a growing GOP, and not the cause of it. I see a lot of Republicans trying to make this election into a mandate for the Bush agenda. (This is what Barone is trying to do with his "statistics".) I just don't see that, and I think that the Social Security privatization will be where we really see about this "mandate." I also see this as an attempt to elevate Bush into that Pantheon of two-term 20th Century Presidents that are generally considered to be great â primarily FDR, and to a lesser extent Reagan. It is certainly too early to make that call. (My guess is that at the end he will comparable to Clinton: successful, but not having reshaped the country dramatically. But again way too early to know.)

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 15:35:26 +0000

Solo: Again, Barone's numbers are inflated by ignoring a serious 3rd party candidacy in 2000 and the lack of same in 2004. Given that the war itself was highly controversial, though, Bush's victory is more than simply not changing horses.

By: SoloD

SoloD — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 15:13:03 +0000

"On Election Day, John Kerry won 16 percent more votes than Al Gore did in 2000. George W. Bush won 23 percent more votes than he had in 2000. This is comparable to Franklin Roosevelt's 22 percent gain in popular votes between 1932 and 1936." However, Landon was only able to increase his vote by 5% over what Hoover had done 4 years before. So while Bush was able to increase his vote total by 7% over Kerry, FDR increased his vote 17%. I think Barone is drinking waayy too much of the Kool-Aid by comparing Bush's very modest victory (primarily on a platform of don't change a horse midstream during wartime) to FDR's sweeping mandate for systemic change during a time of economic crisis.

By: McGehee

McGehee — Mon, 07 Feb 2005 14:16:57 +0000

A little over a decade ago, the idea that Republicans would soon control the White House, both Houses of Congress, a majority of the governorships, and a majority of the state legislatures was beyond belief.

In fact, the first thing I ever read, persuasively suggesting the possibility that the GOP could win majorities in Congress in 1994, was by Michael Barone.