Comments on: Appalachian Election?

By: Fence

Fence — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 21:00:06 +0000

it could come down to Georgia and how many votes Bob Barr siphons off from John McCain

Doubt it. Barr isn't going to win that many votes in GA, and if Obama comes within 5% in Georgia he's well over 300 EVs regardless.

Unless of course they use a butterfly ballot.

By: PD Shaw

PD Shaw — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:17:44 +0000

I think the map is being held sideways; its not a vertical stretch that is in play (New York and Alabama are not crucial). It's a horizontal stretch that constitutes the Upland South, including parts of Missouri, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia. And it's not new, these are states on the border btw/ North and South that have historically been determinative.

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:16:45 +0000

The point is that Gore should have won all three of these states. Tennessee was his home state (think about the implications of your home state deciding that you were not the right person to be president). Arkansas was the home state of the outgoing president that Gore served under. West Virginia went democratic 8 of the previous 10 elections (the exceptions being the national blowout elections of 1972 and 1984).
Given that these should have been winners for Gore, why did he lose them?

By: jgo

jgo — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:12:41 +0000

I'm more worried about how many votes McCain and O'Bama will siphon off from Bob Barr.

By: Bithead

Bithead — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 15:10:24 +0000

well, there's all that, and there's also the number of Clinton supporters who won't vote for Obama if a finger came out of the sky pointing to him saying "This is the guy to vote for". Oh, wait... didn't that happen, already?

By: Moonage

Moonage — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 14:56:19 +0000

Hillbilly Nation or not, Al Gore losing one hillbilly state, the one he lived in, was sort of the indication of what was to come. People sort of take it for granted that the candidate would at least carry that much. However, he just couldn't paint himself as a bitter, gun-toting good ole boy. I think the observation made by Tuttle is correct, but mislabeled. Most of the Appalachian states are primarily, if not heavily Democrat in registration, but will vote Republican. If the Democrat candidate shows an early weakness in the Eastern time zone, ie most all of Appalachia, it is easily observed by those in the later time zones. So, it has been important in years past to lock up some of those swing states to send the message to everyone else that you're gonna win. So, the hillbilly states are very important on election day. But, it has nothing to do with the culture of the region.