Perhaps that is based on the fact that a large chunk of voters have switched their party affiliation from R to D and now Democrats outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania by a nice margin...

That's hardly a recent change, having been in place for the last three or four cycles at least. And Toomey won in that environment. Try again.

12. Pennsylvania (R- D-Specter)
In some sense, this was the first victory of the 2010 cycle for the Democrats -- although considering Specter's voting record thus far, it looks as though it might be something of a Pyrrhic one. Nevertheless, this is now considered a Democratic seat, and this rating now reflects the Republicans' odds of winning it back in 2010, either against Specter or another Democrat like Joe Sestak.

A Republican comeback is unlikely if the uber-conservative Pat Toomey is the Republican nominee. But if ex-Gov. Tom Ridge runs -- and wins -- instead, he would be a formidable opponent. The catch is that it isn't clear how Ridge, like Specter a moderate, pro-choice Republican, will escape the problems that drove Specter from the party, as what's left of the GOP base in Pennsylvania is highly conservative and pro-life. We should know more in a week or so -- if you're a Pennsylvania voter and weren't at Citizens' Bank Park watching the Phillies and the Mets get rained out, you were probably getting nonstop phone calls from pollsters.

I'm interested... on what basis do you asume [sic] the electorate will be more hostile to him than to the Democrats who so badly treated Specter, to their view?

Perhaps that is based on the fact that a large chunk of voters have switched their party affiliation from R to D and now Democrats outnumber Republicans in Pennsylvania by a nice margin...and if Specter were to get beaten in the primary by, say, Sestak, all the better for the Democrats in the general...

None of those years did he face a very hostile electorate.

I'm interested... on what basis do you asume the electorate will be more hostile to him than to the Democrats who so badly treated Specter, to their view?

Remember, too, that Specter faces a primary challange.

More, Toomey has a history of winning races in that area, particularly Democrat- dominated Beaver County by an impressive margin.

Toomey has won a total of three races for congress, all in the house. Those were in 1998, 2000, and 2002. None of those years did he face a very hostile electorate. And his win in 1998 is partially attributed to Ridge's very successful governor candidacy. He's been out of government since 2004. That being the case I don't see how Toomey is quite the fearsome candidate you suggest.

Specter would look much stronger, however, if the GOP nominee winds up being his 2004 primary opponent, former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.). In that matchup, Specter leads 53-33.

That was from Quinnipiac from May 4th, as in three days ago.

Which poll would that be? The one done by the GOP-friendly polling group? Pardon me if I don't put too much faith in that poll...and Toomey may have a history of winning, but history is the operative word...Pennsylvania has changed from the days when it would elect someone like Toomey or Santorum statewide...

Well then you must be happy about the seat staying in Democratic hands, as a wingnut like Toomey has no chance of winning the general election...

Untrue.
Toomey shows as being only a couple points down, and that poll was taken prior to Specter being stripped of his seniority. More, Toomey has a history of winning races in that area, particularly Democrat- dominated Beaver County by an impressive margin.

Actually, I couldn't be happier about that. I've never been happy with Ridge running there, for a lot of reasons.

Well then you must be happy about the seat staying in Democratic hands, as a wingnut like Toomey has no chance of winning the general election...

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h5ya5MYrBo4NdzTAgNMFsAr1cFIgD981H8V00