The Islamists have been moving into Ramadi over the last several months and have reached a mass sufficient to intimidate all the Iraqi government forces stationed in Ramadi. Only about 300 soldiers from the Iraqi Intervention Force are trustworthy and able to work. They are not from Ramadi.

But the Marines are increasingly needing larger force protection measures to traverse Ramadi. I look for two or three "regiments" or Brigade combat teams to take Ramadi, and one brigade/regiment to take Fallujah. I think there will be a decisive end to this in two weeks from the word go. The unrest will increase around Latifiya once the assault begins because the Brits are new to that area, and the terrorists have kicked out the Shiites from that area (they were only 20% there) and so there is no one to provide good intel against the terrorists. This may be the major problem.

Sadr City will be relatively quiet because 1st Cav is ready to destroy any Sadrists and just wants an excuse to do so. The rest of Iraq will be quiet, because the Marines killed so many Sadrists in August. My best guess with little actual input from the theater. So what do I know.

I hope they have good hunting.

Subsunk

There is NO "loss" of Ramadi. Marines are still there, but Islamist homicidial maniacs will need to be eliminated there also.

And after thirty five years in occupation of the west bank, Isreal has proved it's not going to happen by any means at all. It seems the natives of the region would rather make their own history than have outsiders make it for them, no matter how long it takes or what price they have to pay.

Just a reality based observation.

It'll be interesting (from a morbid perspective) to see what the exact timing of the assault will be - just before or after the election. I find it hard to believe that the timing of the attack will be *purely* based on operational considerations. Before the election is risky because of the risk of casualties, but if it pays off it will show George Bush as a decisive leader.