Bird Flu Could Kill 150 Million People

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Bird Flu Could Kill 150 Million People

James Joyner | Friday, September 30, 2005

The UN is warning that the Asian bird flu could spread to humans and kill up to 150 million people.

A new flu pandemic could happen at any time and kill between 5-150 million people, a UN health official warned. David Nabarro, who is charged with co-ordinating responses to bird flu, said a mutation of the virus affecting Asia could trigger new outbreaks. “The consequences in terms of human life when the pandemic does start are going to be extraordinary and very damaging,” Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

Bird flu has swept through poultry and wild birds in Asia since 2003. It has killed huge numbers of birds and lead to more than 60 human deaths. “It’s like a combination of global warming and HIV/Aids 10 times faster than it’s running at the moment,” Dr Nabarro told the BBC.

The UN’s new co-ordinator for avian and human influenza said the likelihood that the Asian virus could mutate and jump to humans was high. Because it has moved to wild migratory birds there is a possibility “that the first outbreak could happen even in Africa or in the Middle East”, he warned.

[...]

He said the number of deaths from any future influenza pandemic would depend on where it started, how quickly it was discovered and the kind of response they got from governments.

The range 5 to 150 is so fantastically large–varying by a factor of 30–that it is essentially the same as saying “we have no clue.” Still, even 5 million deaths would be fantastically large.

About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.

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