BUSH GEARING UP FOR CLOSE RACE
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James Joyner | Tuesday, January 13, 2004 |
Giving lie to the ridiculous notion that the GOP feels so invincible they can ignore moderates, Mort Kondracke reports,
All sorts of current numbers suggest that President Bush should win this year’s election in a landslide, but he and his re-election campaign are acting as though America is still a “50-50 nation.”Bush is basking in boffo poll numbers, economic statistics and fundraising results, but he’s again playing the “compassionate conservative” to appeal to moderates and Latinos. And his campaign is organizing as though it fears a rerun of the 2000 near-tie.
Which is as it should be. The eventual Democratic nominee will start from a floor of somewhere around 42 percent, presuming that there is no Nader-type third party candidate to divide the vote. So, even in an Electoral College blow-out, it will be a relatively tight margin in the popular vote. With eleven months to go until the election, Bush’s numbers certainly aren’t high enough to run out the clock. And, besides, a prevent defense never works.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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I'd wager that even if Bush's internal polling shows him winning in a walk, his campaign will still play up the 50-50 America theme to inspire supporters to get out and vote. Rove is smart enough to realize the dangers of a coattail-less victory. (We get hints of this in Kondracke's article.) An easy ride to the White House --Morning in America II -- would possibly be a disaster for Congressional Republicans and thwart the President's legislative agenda. John Lemon should be coming by to reinforce this point sometime soon ;-)
"And, besides, a prevent defense never works"
Just ask the Green Bay Packers...
The Bush campaign is merely practicing the the old saying goes Hope for the Best, Plan for the Worst.
Why can't he run a campaign like Saddam? He got 100 percent of the vote!
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