Comments on: Daily Poll Roundup

By: Backcountry Conservative

Backcountry Conservative — Wed, 20 Oct 2004 12:44:46 +0000

Poll Tracker
I've added a poll tracker courtesy of Wizbang to the top of each entry and the main page. Somehow I missed it when Kevin first posted it - so thanks go to James Joyner for pointing it out....

By: dw

dw — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 19:45:24 +0000

Things that keeps bothering me about the polls... are they taking into account the record number of voter registrations and whether that may be skewing their percentages and weights WRT party preference? Are they looking at underlying shifts in likely voter preferences vs. 2000? How are the voter drives by Rock the Vote and the Christian Coalition affecting things? The Seattle P-I's raw numbers show a jump of 300,000 new voter registrations over 2000. In a state with 50% average sufferage and a voting population around 3 million that's a 10% shift. Assuming that's going on all over the country, it's entirely possible the polls are wrong in either direction. It's going to come down to turnout more than any election in history. There are so few undecideds that their votes do matter, but at this point the parties would do better to abandon them, screw the middle, and whip their partisans into a frenzy so that they're piling 10 at a time into their Escalades/Priuses. 10 GOP/Dems are worth more than the one idiot out there waiting for a candidate to give him a free pony.

By: Talentscout

Talentscout — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 18:28:17 +0000

JFKGB (who really funded the Viet Nam anti war movement?) slipping among women? Maybe he should take counsel from the previous dem pres. Might be his numbers would climb if he was accused of glomming all over some female campaign worker or intern. Maybe not though. Terror eaze ahh might not cover his six like Hillary did for Bill.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 17:12:47 +0000

I don't think it's so much that he's being partisan--he was showing a more pro-Bush figure than the others recently--as that it's based on whatever the latest poll is, regardless of the caliber of the poll.

By: Some guy

Some guy — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 17:04:54 +0000

Electoral-Vote.com is spinning wildly out of control. He's way too partisan.

He had a piece a few days ago defending his methodology. Suffice it to say it needed defending.

By: Crack the Bell

Crack the Bell — Tue, 19 Oct 2004 16:11:41 +0000

New Polls and Whatnot
Meanwhile, a University of Cincinnati Institute for Policy Research poll shows Ohio statistically tied, with Kerry leading 48-46. Again, though, some polls in September had Bush with a comfortable lead, so Kerry seems to have the momentum.