Comments on: Bush Leads Every National Poll

By: Mike

Mike — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 16:51:05 +0000

I think I'll wait for the main poll on 02NOV04.

By: Bithead

Bithead — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 12:22:10 +0000

I would argue though that the issue of who won that last debate would seem to have been answered.

Think; Going into the debate, they were by all accounts, tied. Early returnsthat night, showed Bush pulling ahead, and more recent returns confirmed and expanded this movement, to the point where now he's up in every national poll.

Should I expect the NYT to report this anytime soon?

By: paladin

paladin — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 12:22:03 +0000

I think the Dems are getting desperate - first they try to scare young people and their moms with the draft canard, then they try to scare blacks with the canard that their votes are being suppressed, now they're falling back on the Dem classic of scaring old people with the "January Surprise" bit about privatizing Social Security. Sheesh - like GWB could just wave a magic wand and make it so. Pathetic.

By: Dean Esmay

Dean Esmay — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 09:25:23 +0000

Yeesh. Newsweek is such trash. Their numbers fluctuate so wildly it's ridiculous. I just automatically ignore their numbers these days.

RCP's averages are nice but keep in mind they keep two, one that averages ALL polls and another on the battleground states that just averages a handful of the most reliable ones. The latter is more meanignful, because there are a lot of trash polls out there and only a few really reputable polling outfits--Mason-Dixon, Zogby, Gallup, and a few others.

The state-by-state polls matter most of course but historically it is extremely rare for someone to win the popular vote but not the electoral college, so it's your best general indicator of where things are swinging. It's much like the fact that the team that scores the most runs usually wins the World Series, although occasionally they don't.

Mind you, you knew that, but I wanted to point it out anyway. ;-)

By: The Moderate Voice

The Moderate Voice — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 06:02:44 +0000

George Bush Pulls Way Ahead In Polls -- Or HAS He?
The topsy-turvey nature of polls was driven home more than ever today when two contradictory polls came out -- allowing partisans to trumpet the one that shows their candidate gaining. First there was the watershed USA Today/Gallup Poll which gave

By: Paul

Paul — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 05:52:20 +0000

"has it Bush 49.0, Kerry 47.0, and Nader 1.7. "

psst I think you meant to type Kerry 45

Never make a typo in Kerry's favor- It makes me nervous.

By: Brain Shavings

Brain Shavings — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 04:11:30 +0000

I'm optimistic about Bush's prospects The guys at Power Line read the tea leaves and conclude that Bush is winning (and they don't buy the lastest Gallup poll results, either). RealClearPolitics has been constantly tracking all the major polls and averaging them, which when displayed on a...

By: McGehee

McGehee — Mon, 18 Oct 2004 02:37:53 +0000

My Magic 8-BallÂ® says to wait and see how things look a week from now in Ohio.