Comments on: Buying the Same North Korean Horse and Accepting the Unacceptable

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:20:53 +0000

"... found us to be lacking in will."

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 02:12:30 +0000

"...the North Koreans will be cowed by a belief in US technological superiority..."

The Norks have no doubts about our technological superiority.

They have, however, been taking our measure for the last 15 years and want us to be lacking in will.

"Morale is to material as is the ratio of three to one." So said some Corsican dude.

By: Herb

Herb — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:54:34 +0000

With a little luck, the North Koreans will be cowed by a belief in US technological superiority, reach a judgment that testing a missile and having it shot down will cause them to lose face. With some diplomatic skill they can be made to look cooperative and then offered some things that they really need, like food.

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 01:31:14 +0000

Please notice my use of the word "tacit." "Mr. PRC Foreign Minister, it would be most unfortunate, due to your inability to control your client, if Japan felt compelled to look after it's own interests." Wink, wink. No, actually, it's "bad" when anyone "does it." Unfortunately, no one has the will to stop it, but some will posture and threaten all the live long day. Hence the folly of the NPT. Which of the signatories to the NPT, who are currently in violation of their respective pledge, should we sanction and ultimately, deprive of their ill-gotten nuke technology?

By: An Interested Party

An Interested Party — Sun, 31 May 2009 23:54:57 +0000

Our hole card on this is the tacit threat to allow Japan to become a nuclear power. China fears this above all else.

Wouldn't Japan be violating the NPT by doing that? Isn't that a bad thing? Or is it only bad when particular countries do it...

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Sun, 31 May 2009 22:58:12 +0000

Actually, why doesn't the proposed U.N. resolution make any N.K. missile subject to destruction once it leaves N.K. airspace? The test data obtained from an unarmed missile launch enables N.K. to refine their current technology. No freebies.

As a practical matter, I don't think that Obama is eager to validate, through a successful real-world engagement, the same BMD program that he is trying to reduce. "It works perfectly, so therefore I am reducing funding by an additional 50%."

On second thought, he would say that, wouldn't he?

By: Herb

Herb — Sun, 31 May 2009 19:39:38 +0000

Assuming that he can deliver, Obama should introduce a UN resolution calling for the North Koreans to allow a verification inspection of their long range missile before testing. The purpose of the inspection is to guarantee that the missile is not armed with a nuclear weapon. He should then state that our antimissile technology is sufficient for us to shoot down the NK missile should it be launched prior to inspection.

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Sun, 31 May 2009 19:04:55 +0000

Our hole card on this is the tacit threat to allow Japan to become a nuclear power. China fears this above all else.

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:59:34 +0000

I don't think that China would want to participate. I also question their desire to function as an honest broker.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:53:06 +0000

Stratetic MC:

Don't you think that Chinese participation would enhance the effectiveness of the Proliferation Security Initiative? I do.

By: Brett

Brett — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:48:53 +0000

I've said it before, but I'll say it again - I think our main goals with regards to North Korea should be to restrict outside aid going into the country; to harden South Korea, Japan, and our other allies in the region against the Norks against their nuclear threat (through ABM and general military aid); and to push as much of the burden of sustaining the North Korean state as possible on to the Chinese. Negotiating with the Norks is a fools' game, since they break every agreement, and have a strong incentive to never actually follow through with their commitment to get rid of their nukes. The Chinese might restrain them, but they ultimately won't let the North Korean regime fall as long as they sit tight and don't do anything stupid like launching a war with South Korea. Let the Chinese shoulder the burden, then.

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:44:22 +0000

"...implementation of the PSI..."

By: The Strategic MC

The Strategic MC — Sun, 31 May 2009 18:43:22 +0000

"I hope we are courting China for its participation in the program to interdict ships leaving North Korean ports..." I don't think China will have much to say about a robust implementation the PSI in East Asia. Btw, the interdiction of ships approaching N.K. that are carrying proscribed equipment and materials is just as important.