Comments on: California Tightening, Routs Everywhere Else

By: PoliBlog ™: A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » The Super-Duper (Perhaps Even Wuper!) Toast-o-Meter

Tue, 05 Feb 2008 02:37:26 +0000

[...] OTB: California Tightening, Routs Everywhere Else [...]

By: John

John — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 23:35:00 +0000

I actually see Mitt Romney either winning or coming in a very close second on Super Tuesday. He is a fighter and as Republicans see and hear more of John McCain they are reminded that he is really not a conservative person.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 22:58:12 +0000

I'm a bit confused, why does the date say 02/05? It clearly can't mean the date the poll was taken cause thats tomorrow.

I presume it's the date the primary will be held.

By: Trevor

Trevor — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 22:52:21 +0000

I'm a bit confused, why does the date say 02/05? It clearly can't mean the date the poll was taken cause thats tomorrow.

By: legion

legion — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 21:54:18 +0000

Absent the "Live boy or dead girl" scenario,

Insert obligatory Hillary joke here.

You're welcome.

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 21:16:12 +0000

Unless Hillary or Obama can break away from each other, they are likely to go down to the wire with the super delegates being the deciding factor. My understanding of the rules is that even a super delegate who has publicly pledged to one candidate, when it comes time to vote, they can change their mind.

Absent the "Live boy or dead girl" scenario, I am thinking the brokered convention (at least to the extent the super delegates cast the deciding vote) is the odds on favorite to occur.

By: Rich

Rich — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 21:08:20 +0000

There are also a fair amount of outliers in some of these states' polls. Zogby alone have Romney up 8 in CA while Rasmussun, who had Romney up 5 in FL has CA as tied. These account for the closeness. Who is right? I don't know but this will be a interesting test for the pollers as well. McCain also benefits from some Zogby outliers but not to the same degree. I think we may be seeing some unique California polling issues here. Should be interesting. Somehow I'm sure Romney and his shrills will turn tomorrow into some Orwellian victory. War is Peace, Slavery is Freedom, Losing is Winning. What a vile fraud.

By: Tlaloc

Tlaloc — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 21:05:45 +0000

It seems pretty clear that Ron Paul is on the upswing, as well.

Oh, well played sir.

By: Triumph

Triumph — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:23:53 +0000

It seems pretty clear that Ron Paul is on the upswing, as well.

By: duckspeaker

duckspeaker — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 20:21:45 +0000

Interestingly enough, putting the above Dem RCP numbers into Excel and taking a simple weighted sum, I get 687 delegates for HRC and 667 for Obama. However, if instead of using the RCP average figures, I substitute the most recent polls in each state, the figures shift from a 20 delegate Obama deficit to a 15 delegate Obama lead.

Either way, the potential Tuesday results do not definitively decide the race, but it's worthwhile echoing that the recent trend favors Obama.