Comments on: Campaign Polls: All Politics is Local?

By: mw

mw — Thu, 13 Sep 2007 03:51:42 +0000

I think you are bit early with both calls. Yeah, it looks like full steam ahead for her campaign right now, but there is plenty of time for Hilary to get off course. If she does, all bets are off for the Dems. I wouldn't be surprised to see a dark horse like Chris Dodd pick up Clinton's supporters if her campaign takes a torpedo below the waterline. She is certainly capable of finding a way to lose. Your scenario with the Reps is plausible, but I think we need to see Fred in at least one debate before we can assess his potential impact or lack thereof. All "Politics is Local?" Pretty good conventional wisdom. But not always. It certainly wasn't in 2006. With a 130,000+ still in Iraq through at least next summer, it won't be in 2008 either.

By: legion

legion — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 18:53:30 +0000

In a mildly related development, it's rumbling that Pat Buchanan might run for a Senate seat from Virgina next year. If Larry Craig refuses to resign, next fall could be teh awsumest Senate election cycle EVAR.

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 14:03:41 +0000

The subject could make an interesting blog post in December, but right now you would do just about as well using a sheeps liver to predict the future. So many chances to stumble, so many chances to shine and so many voters not paying attention yet.

Further, I suspect that while Iraq will be one of the top three issues in the 2008 campaign, we will see one of the top three issues be something we aren't expecting today.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Wed, 12 Sep 2007 12:06:54 +0000

Granted, Howard Dean seemed a sure thing in the fall of 2003, too. But he was a newcomer to the national political scene. Clinton has been in the spotlight since 1991 and has shown remarkable discipline.

In addition Sen. Clinton has an actual boots-on-the-ground organization. Like Ron Paul on this year's Republican side, Howard Dean had a very committed but particularly deep organization.

I think we'll also find that practically all party regulars will support Sen. Clinton.