Comments on: Can the Polls Be Trusted?

By: Anderson

Anderson — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 19:18:09 +0000

Re: the AP poll, if you include 44% evangelicals in your sample when 23% voted in 2004, then yeah, you're going to get a tight race. Garbage in, garbage out.

By: anjin-san

anjin-san — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 14:29:44 +0000

Better, I suppose, than was reported.

Got the 401k blues? Buy tin foil futures. A slam dunk.

By: Bithead

Bithead — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:46:33 +0000

bitsy how did that big post debate palin bounce work out for you?

Better, I suppose, than was reported.

By: anjin-san

anjin-san — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 04:38:55 +0000

bitsy how did that big post debate palin bounce work out for you?

By: Bithead

Bithead — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 01:15:46 +0000

and Fox has Obama up by 9.

Not for long.
Sit back, and watch. Assuming the pattern holds, the rest will start following suit in the next five days, usually less.

By: Floyd

Floyd — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 22:57:54 +0000

Grewgills; it is not productive to depend on any poll, short of the one on Nov.4.
Whether corrupted or not, it is the only one that counts.
As for your hat...."Hang on to your hat!"

By: Grewgills

Grewgills — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 21:11:42 +0000

Did anyone notice, as if on cue, AP producing a poll saying the race is tied again?
It's happened so often over the years, calling it this time was no great feat.

and Fox has Obama up by 9.

It isn't wise to hang your hat on any one poll or even poll aggregators like RCP or 538, though I think the latter are far more likely to be accurate than the former.

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 20:33:31 +0000

When InTrade and the RCP national average start saying the race is a tie, then I'll get excited.

I just checked RCP and they have that poll, and it is the only one that is that close. The next closest is the GWU/Battleground poll that has Obama at +2 and then IBD/TIPP which is at +4.

By: Nightly Ramble:Race is now tied again…Biden Brain scan finds nothing; More McCain Sign Stealing; more | BitsBlog

Wed, 22 Oct 2008 20:05:03 +0000

[...] and they’ve been having a bit of a row over it on many of the blogs I’ve visted today including OTB. and Q&O. But this one hasn’t gotten into that discussion yet. As if on cue, AP produces [...]

By: Bithead

Bithead — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 19:13:03 +0000

Did anyone notice, as if on cue, AP producing a poll saying the race is tied again? It's happened so often over the years, calling it this time was no great feat.

By: Anderson

Anderson — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:54:39 +0000

Obama's battleground numbers have been deteriorating in recent days -- a Mason/Dixon poll in VA shows him up by only 2, and Florida is quite close. Colorado has also been dwindling.

I dunno if these reflect the recent decline in national numbers (which seem to be rebounding), or perhaps the effect of relentless negative TV ads in those states.

Anyway, much as I support Obama, I'm not counting the Cabinet members just yet.

By: Grewgills

Grewgills — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:53:24 +0000

I read the 538 polling synopsis (linked by DC) last night. It gives a good breakdown on each of the polls and their inherent biases and is well worth reading.

In the battleground states listed above only Colorado and Virginia are outside the MOE, though I do like the lean in the other states.

By: charles austin

charles austin — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:35:41 +0000

Gaffes too.

By: charles austin

charles austin — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:35:19 +0000

Barring some huge unforseen scandal erupting around Obama, this thing is over.

The scandals, gaffe's, etc. are there, but no one cares.

By: Brett

Brett — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 17:18:24 +0000

Early or mail-in voting will probably help to increase young voter turn-out, simply because instead of having to go someplace to vote, they can do it in peer groups with peer pressure getting them to vote.