Comments on: Candidate Expiration Dates

By: Jalal Abu Jarhead

Jalal Abu Jarhead — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

Dunno, James. This theory makes me think of the old record from the '60s, drawing all the parallels between Kennedy and Lincoln. Even though the quote cites 16 examples (plus one exception), it still seems like a stretch. Especially with the inclusion of four parenthetical "to Vice President" remarks.

Such a small statistical universe. It looks compelling at first glance, but I'm always wary of drawing rules from observation, even moreso when there's such a small sample.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

JAJ,

I don't think it's an iron law. But he makes a pretty good case; read the whole article. Indeed, as he points out, being Veep suspends the clock--but no Veep but LBJ made it to Prez in more than 14 years from getting elected to major office if the Veep years are subtracted.

And the universe of candidates who sought the presidency in the last 100-plus years is much larger than those elected.

By: Jalal Abu Jarhead

Jalal Abu Jarhead — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

Ah, the pitfalls of statistics. I neglected the part of the universe that got filtered out.

By: The Commissar

The Commissar — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

What struck me was that two of our famously 'young' presidents, Clinton and Kennedy, were at the outer boundary of this rule.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

Commissar: The same thing struck me, especially with JFK. Clinton was a boy governor--he got elected at age 32, I think. But JFK was definitely in the House much longer than I had thought.

By: Paul

Paul — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

That's funny, when I mailed this to you about 2 months ago you strongly discounted it. Go Figure.

By: Randy

Randy — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

One assumes that LBJ, and Gerald Ford, fall outside the rule because they were accidental (unelected) Presidents. (True, LBJ won re-election in 1964, but he would never have been elected otherwise, as his campaign in 1960 showed.)

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

Randy,

Right. Indeed, Ford doesn't count since he wasn't elected in his own right. And had JFK not been killed, the first chance LBJ would have had to run again was 1968, when he'd have likely been too old.

By: Kalblog

Kalblog — Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000

The Presidency
Outside the Beltway has an interesting post based on Jonathan Rauch's Rule of 14, which says that the chance that a politician will become President starts declining dramatically after he has been in office for 14 years. I think there...

---