Castro’s Death Could Help Elect Hillary Clinton
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James Joyner | Tuesday, August 1, 2006 |
Hotline’s Chuck Todd speculates on how the much-hoped-for death of Fidel Castro would impact American electoral politics, most notably “Florida’s 27 electoral votes.”
It’s an interesting question, given that Florida was key in 2000 and that retaining it will likely be a prerequisite to a Republican winning the White House in 2008 and beyond. If the Cuban vote were up for grabs with Castro gone, there would indeed be a new dynamic at work.
As an aside, I predict a minor cottage industry in thought pieces on this very subject, along the lines of the recent spate of “What if Roe v. Wade were overturned” articles.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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I think this would be in line with speculating about Chicago ethnic Polish vote being up for grabs with the fall of the Berlin wall.
I suspect that IF Castro is out, that the transition is likely to be turbulent enough that any presidential vote impact would at least remain through 2008. What it would allow is for either party (especially the democrats) to modify their position on the "new" Cuba in an attempt to garner this vote.
Also, the name on the ballot is also going to have an impact. As an example, imagine it is Rudy as the Republican candidates. I suspect that some of the NY/NJ retirees might offset any impact, assuming there was some impact.
Why bury the lede? HILLARY TRIES TO MURDER CASTRO!!! MUST CREDIT DRUDGE REPORT!!!
Put the Castro assassination plot in between "Vince Foster" and "coven of lesbian witches."
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