They’ve squandered, in less than two years, the considerable good will they had coming out of the last presidential election.

Maybe their unity around the enthusiastic support of torture and the denial of habeas corpus will salvage their fortunes.

First, there is a big difference in the power of speaker and senate majority leader. So pointing to uncertainty about a replacement due to Frist retiring and Pelosi being speaker misses the point.

Second, while it is certainly tinted by my partisan ship, I have a hard time thinking of anyone who is likely to replace Frist (it won't be a freshman elected this year, it won't be Chaffee, etc) as being someone I would have a harder time living with than Pelosi for speaker. There are several likely names on the democratic senate side who I think would be worse than any of the GOP likely candidates. Likewise on the GOP side in the house, even if Hastert wasn't going to be the likely next speaker, I would have a hard time thinking of a GOP rep who I would not prefer over Pelosi.

I understand if you think cutting and running from Iraq would only have a positive impact and no negative impacts why a speaker Pelosi wouldn't fill you with dread. But if you can see some real potential for some real nasty negative side effects then you can see why such an outcome makes sense to consider before the election.

Ah yes, but how long until the winners are in-place and actually operating? Before you make assumptions on that date, take another look at the fiasco of MD's recent primary elections...

And as for who will be running things, even _that_ is still well up in the air, considering the number of senior GOP incumbents in risky positions right now, as well as general dissatisfaction with Frist's leadership. If the Dems win, yeah Pelosi's in charge, but if not, there's little to predict with...

I agree that there are a lot of moving parts, but I disagree that looking at who will be running things is "nuts". I agree that things are close enough that neither party should be looking at plans for re-decorating the majority leaders office. But who will be running things is a key part of this election. One big asset the GOP has with swing voters is to have them look beyond the individual candidate and see what might happen under a democrat. I think even you would agree that the house would be very different under a speaker Pelosi, no matter that the vote that puts the gavel in her hand might be from a moderate democrat in a swing district.

Of course the downside to this argument is the same for the democrats. It isn't arguing why your party should being charge, but that you aren't the other party. Even so, it is a reasonable counter when the democrats are mostly running on a platform of "we aren't republicans".

I think it’s nuts (and a waste of brainpower) to even try to predict who’s going to be running things in a few months.

The election is less than 5 weeks away....