Comments on: Election Postmortem: The Polls Were Right

By: James M.

James M. — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 13:26:55 +0000

I have to admit in the past I have been very skeptical of the polls since most news groups sway to one way or another but, this time it was almost dead on. I hope this trend continues.

By: tom p

tom p — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 23:19:34 +0000

what a load of crap! It is just so that geeks can confuse real people like Joe the Plumber and make themselves feel good.

Steve... hee hee, I love it when you get sarcastic..."real people like Joe the Plumber"...

What a hoot!

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 21:24:44 +0000

Can we finally kill the meme about skewed polls?

That Law of Large Numbers thing, what a load of crap! It is just so that geeks can confuse real people like Joe the Plumber and make themselves feel good.

By: RW Rogers

RW Rogers — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 18:30:43 +0000

Given that the press is reporting a record turnout of 130 million, it will be interesting to see if the final popular vote totals add up to that. At the moment, with 97% of precincts reporting, the two major candidates combined have almost 2 million votes less than the two major candidates combined in 2004.

By: Steven Taylor

Steven Taylor — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:37:03 +0000

I doubt anyone will seriously speak of a Bradley Effect in any subsequent election, either.

I certainly hope so.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 17:21:26 +0000

So was McInturff just spinning or was his polling data wrong?

I didn't get a chance to talk to him last night, as he was in Arizona. My understanding is that he was showing the race tightening -- which it indeed seems to have done, given the results in Georgia, North Dakota, Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, etc. -- and arguing that undecideds were going to break overwhelmingly for McCain. The latter, it seems, didn't happen.

My guess is that this was part spin and part art vs. science of forecasting behavior from opinion surveys.

By: Steven Donegal

Steven Donegal — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:39:26 +0000

So was McInturff just spinning or was his polling data wrong?

By: Jamie

Jamie — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 15:25:04 +0000

I doubt anyone will seriously speak of a Bradley Effect in any subsequent election, either.

By: Billy

Billy — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:16:11 +0000

Missouri: Still too close to call, although McCain leads with 100% of precincts in. Presumably, we’re waiting to count the absentee ballots. RCP had McCain winning by 0.7 and 4 of the 6 polls in the average had a tie. Truly a dead heat.

Anecdotally, many, many people in Missouri used absentee voting as a de facto early voting vehicle. The numbers could easily swing the very small margin McCain has right now.

By: James Joyner

James Joyner — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:13:15 +0000

My guess is that you're right.

By: Steven Taylor

Steven Taylor — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:59:23 +0000

Can we finally kill the meme about skewed polls?

Man, you'd like to think so, wouldn't you?

However. my guess is not.