Comments on: Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated)

By: Election Prediction Winners

Election Prediction Winners — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 14:19:02 +0000

[...] the OTB gang, Alex Knapp came closest: 350 - 188. He correctly called the Nebraska 2nd going to Obama but thought (as [...]

By: Electoral College Predictions

Electoral College Predictions — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:55:09 +0000

[...] James Joyner: Obama 325, McCain 213 [...]

By: PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » A Couple More Predictions

PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » A Couple More Predictions — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 19:44:37 +0000

[...] James Joyner: Election Prediction: Obama 325, McCain 213 (Updated). [...]

By: Right Wing News

Right Wing News — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 10:03:58 +0000

Predictions For Election 2008...

President Hot Air: McCain 273 vs. Obama 265 The Campaign Spot: Obama 286 vs. McCain 252 Right Wing News: Obama 311 vs. McCain 227 Outside the Beltway: Obama 325 vs. McCain 213 Election Projection: Obama 338 vs. McCain 200 Karl......

By: Floyd

Floyd — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 23:51:05 +0000

Alec;
Then I guess you should be considered a psychic if you can read and write??

By: alec

alec — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 21:45:10 +0000

I'm predicting Obama wins 343 to 195:

http://www.prosebeforehos.com/alec/11/03/my-election-predictions/

Also, you should be considered illiterate if you think Virginia will end up for McCain.

By: Billy

Billy — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:29:33 +0000

James, I think you're right except for 3 states - OH, FL and VA.

Just for the record.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 18:26:57 +0000

It seems to me the downside risk in Cap'n Ed predicting a narrow McCain victory is pretty low. And he's a prophet if McCain actually wins.

By: Wayne

Wayne — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 15:55:52 +0000

I just don’t know. I have been getting unusual feedback from different areas. Polls take in past habits and trends and try to predict the future. If a scenario ends up unusual then the polls could be off which have been the case many times before. I am one of those persons who will find the one dissenting opinion in the room and get them to talk to me about it. I come across many, some in their 60’s who are voting for the first time in their life. I also know die hard Democrats who never voted Republican in their life that tell me they are voting for McCain but not to tell anyone they are. Granted most of them are from red states and I recognize the fallacy of putting too much worth in personal experience. It just makes me wonder if this could be one of those unusual scenarios.

By: Dave Schuler

Dave Schuler — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 13:21:27 +0000

Matt: You're right. But extremely narrowly—by eight hundredths of a percent.

By: Matt Schiavenza

Matt Schiavenza — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 07:53:17 +0000

Yes..the Obama best-case scenario should read 417-121. Dave, I'm quite certain Carter won an absolute majority of the popular vote in 1976, though you're correct that Clinton didn't in both '92 and '96. James, Your projections sound pretty good, but given the recent polling I think it's likelier that Obama will take Virginia and lose Florida rather than the other way around. The final numbers should more or less mirror your prediction, though.

By: Floyd

Floyd — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 02:09:08 +0000

Anderson;
You forget, Illinois votes were counted two years ago. I fact, judging by the birth dates of many of the voters, some were cast decades or even centuries ago!

By: G.A.Phillips

G.A.Phillips — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 01:49:51 +0000

Oh and I'll site a poll, mine, if the few hundred people I have talked to in the last few weeks means anything 0bama is gonna fulfill Oprah's prophecy. Have no doubt it was a better mix then most of the polls you guys site. Then again I live in Wis, were even most of the self proclaimed Christan's are gonna vote for him regardless of things I explained, they seem to have been hypnotized by the bush's fault/we need change message. I pray that I'm wrong but the poop ain't looking good.

By: G.A.Phillips

G.A.Phillips — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 01:36:02 +0000

Dylan, Neil Young, Santana and the Grateful Dead.Springsteen on the Born

Kids band, lol,

If classic rock to folk with a small bit of talent bands with few catchy tunes are what you like just so say so, but please dont try to pass them off a anything comparible to the brillance of Maiden. And damn bro, you know im just messing with you. Did you watch the last link?

It's mighty funny.

By: sam

sam — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 01:31:30 +0000

I'm projecting that McCain will win the election as Jews, Hispanics, women, the elderly and (surprisingly) African-Americans break his way.

I've neglected reading your blog for far too long, Mr. Swift. Shan't happen in the future.