Elections and Markets
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James Joyner | Friday, May 21, 2004 |
Paul at Wizbang, Sean Hackbarth, and Kevin McGeehee ponder the presidential polls and whether the advent of election betting markets don’t provide a better predictive device.
It’s an interesting point, although this specific market mechanism doesn’t have enough of a track record to really evaluate at this point. Indeed, one would guess that polls and these markets are rather interrelated, as people betting large sums of money on an election outcome likely follow the polls rather closely.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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