Comments on: Electoral College Tie: McCain 269, Obama 269

By: McCain gives up on Michigan « View from North Britain

McCain gives up on Michigan « View from North Britain — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 01:12:11 +0000

[...] way; it’ll be a tie! Something that pundits have already been postulating; here and here. An Obama - Palin presidential [...]

By: 269-269? « Citizen Elector

269-269? « Citizen Elector — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 05:45:03 +0000

[...] 269-269? There’s been a lot of loose talk lately about the possibility of a 269-269 Electoral College tie. Stories about this tend to be peppered with hyperbole, running the gamut from “doomsday” to “nightmare” to “political pundits’ dream.” [...]

By: Crust

Crust — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 15:11:29 +0000

It's too late for 2008, but could we please have a constitutional amendment by 2012 that guarantees an odd number of members to the electoral college? Or switch to a popular vote or whatever. Just something that avoids this potential "fun".

By: trumwill

trumwill — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 05:56:27 +0000

I actually wrote a more detailed account (on my generally apolitical blog) of what might happen if there's a tie. Basically noting that Obama would have more delegations and which ones McCain might be able to pull across in order to bridge the gap (which states that McCain might win that have more closely divided delegations, etc). Read the whole thing, if you're interested. The short version is that it would be extremely difficult for McCain to pull it off and that it would likely lead to no good results either which way. Note: For some reason I missed the fact that Delaware has a Republican delegation, so my numbers are going to be slightly off.

By: just me

just me — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 00:41:31 +0000

I also wonder what role the states tat allow EC voters to switch would play. If either party could get a few people to change, the congressional vote would be averted although whoever won in this environment would likely be viewed as stealing the office-but I figure that is how it would be viewed if the EC voters stuck to their votes and congress voted.

In the end I imagine Obama and McCain would see this as a horrible outcome.

By: Brett

Brett — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 00:00:58 +0000

There's nothing like a constitutional crisis to liven up your election, now is it?

And if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.

This is the part I don't understand. Does this mean that the Senate would choose the next president, with Dick Cheney presiding - or that Dick Cheney would actually become President for at least a while?

By: G.A.Phillips

G.A.Phillips — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 23:53:45 +0000

This is EXACTLY why Bush needs to pull a Musharraf and dissolve Congress and postpone elections.

Dissolve Congress in what, the pit of acid under the floor in front of his desk?

lol, you kook.

By: Doug Mataconis

Doug Mataconis — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 21:49:04 +0000

Under Federal election laws, it would be the Congress that takes office in January 2009 that picks the President:

http://tinyurl.com/67psn8

Congress shall be in session on the sixth day of January succeeding every meeting of the electors. The Senate and House of Representatives shall meet in the Hall of the House of Representatives at the hour of 1 o’clock in the afternoon on that day, and the President of the Senate shall be their presiding officer. Two tellers shall be previously appointed on the part of the Senate and two on the part of the House of Representatives, to whom shall be handed, as they are opened by the President of the Senate, all the certificates and papers purporting to be certificates of the electoral votes, which certificates and papers shall be opened, presented, and acted upon in the alphabetical order of the States, beginning with the letter A; and said tellers, having then read the same in the presence and hearing of the two Houses, shall make a list of the votes as they shall appear from the said certificates; and the votes having been ascertained and counted according to the rules in this subchapter provided, the result of the same shall be delivered to the President of the Senate, who shall thereupon announce the state of the vote

Ironically, Dick Cheney, who will still be President of the Senate on January 6, 2009 would preside over the entire process

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:49:53 +0000

Given that the voting goes until March 4th, the new congress gets involved.

But take this scenario one step further. imagine we know in November that it is an EC tie. For the GOP, the smartest thing they could do would be to have one of their EC voters endorse Hillary. Then the three people with the most EC votes would be Obama, McCain and Hillary. Could Hillary move just enough votes to keep Obama from winning? Enough so that the states with a dem majority split there votes and a united GOP takes the state?

I can't think of anyone that the dems could do the same thing to the GOP. Take any of the GOP primary people into the mix and I don't see them splitting the GOP vote.

There is also the fact that the GOP routinely wins a majority of the states (2004 was 31 vs 19). So state democratic delegations will be facing home pressure. It is one thing to have a CD split the ticket. It is another to have the rep getting the benefit of the split to saddle them with someone other than their choice for president.

All in all, it would be messy. Add in the idea of Biden getting to sit as president for a while and we are talking political theater of the highest order.

By: Doug Mataconis

Doug Mataconis — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:46:01 +0000

Being something of a politics geek, I did the math myself about a month ago:

http://tinyurl.com/6n357a

Here's how the Current House looks:

* Majority Republican Delegations — 21

Of these, two (Delaware and Michigan) are in states that are either strongly Democratic at the Presidential level, or lean Democratic. Realistically, can anyone see Delaware’s single representative defying the will of his constituents and voting for the Republican candidate ?

* Majority Democratic Delegations — 27

Of these eight delegations (Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, West Virginia) are in states that are either strongly Republican or leaning to weak Republican.

* No Party Majority — 2

In the present Congress Arizona and Kansas, both strong Republican states, have evenly divided delegations.

How this might change if it's the next House that would decide things remains to be seen.

By: Triumph

Triumph — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:39:39 +0000

The scenarios are far-fetched enough that I haven’t run the numbers of the possibilities.

This is EXACTLY why Bush needs to pull a Musharraf and dissolve Congress and postpone elections.

If not, we run the serious risk of having the terrorists get us.

By: Maniakes

Maniakes — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:32:51 +0000

It seems to me that "immediately" takes effect upon the formal counting of the electoral votes by the old Vice President in front of Congress. I remember in 2000 and 2004 that happened after then new Congress was sworn in, but it doesn't look like there's anything in the Constitution requiring that to be the case. Maybe it's in federal election law?

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:15:54 +0000

I predict riots, cats living with dogs, and a complete and utter break down of the moral fabric of the United States.

Hmmm....better make more popcorn, and stock up on booze.

By: RW Rogers

RW Rogers — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 19:36:06 +0000

Forgot to add, while past performance is no guarantee of future possibilities, the election of 1800 provides the basic outline.

By: RW Rogers

RW Rogers — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 19:33:23 +0000

If the present Congress makes that decision, Obama would probably win. I could be wrong, but after a quick run-through I found 27 state delegations have more Dems than Reps while 21 have more Reps than Dems. Two are evenly divided: Arizona and Kansas.