Electoral Math
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James Joyner | Tuesday, August 3, 2004 |
Matthew Yglesias looks at the current state-by-state numbers and concludes that Kerry is in exceedingly good shape.
The general dynamic, I think, is that Bush needs to defend many fronts — Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire (82 electoral votes) — while Kerry really only needs to play defense in Iowa and Wisonsin (17 electoral votes). What could change this dynamic is if the Nader campaign picks up steam and re-produces the artificially close results we saw last time in Maine and the Pacific Northwest.
The current numbers:
According to my handy-dandy calculator, this means 289 Kerry, 232 Bush, and 17 undecided right now. The “barely” states are all within the margin of polling error, so rather dubious to include into the calculation, but there’s no really good way to do it otherwise at the moment.
Like Matt, I’m rather confident that Tennessee’s 11 EV’s will ultimately go to Bush, notwithstanding the fact that they’re currently in the “barely Kerry” column. That would switch the decideds to 278-243. Arizona’s 10, Missouri’s 11, and West Virginia’s 5 will almost certainly go to Bush, shifting it to 252-269. Since 270 is the magic number, Bush is in decent shape, considering his convention is yet to come while Kerry’s has come and gone without a measurable “bounce.”
Still, I agree with Matt: the math favors Kerry. Ohio’s 20 and Florida’s 27 EVs are in the “weak Bush” category. Bush won both states in 2000, Ohio closely and Florida by a whisker. He needs to hold both–or pick off Pennsylvania–to stave off Kerry. If Bush takes all three states, which is not out of the realm of possibility, he’ll win easily. But just a little bad news at the wrong time, or a poor performance in the debates, could just as easily cause him to lose all three.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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Bush's biggest problem: being popular in very unpopulated states. That map is just astonishing. If Kerry wins, it'll be the coasts that give it to him.
Kerry had such a minimal convention bounce I give the edge to Bush now. That may be 20th Century thinking, though. And maybe the Repub convention will be as big a turnoff as the Dem convention was, and Bush's own bounce will be minimal. But you'd think the challenger needs to be up by a lot more while the incumbent's powder is still dry.
This kind of math is like saying two plus two approaches five for large values of two. There will be a poll November 2nd to bring clarity and enlightenment to all,
I'm not sure you can easily put Arizona in the Bush column. They did elect a Democrat as governor. And I think it's very difficult for Bush to win Pennsylvania. Even though the western part is conservative, they've suffered a ton of job losses recently which might make them stay home or vote Dem. Since I don't think Bush won Floriday in 2000, I doubt that he'll win it in 2004 if the votes are counted.
Regardless of the horse race, does anyone else have a problem with the fact that one vote does not mean one vote? Why should someone in Idaho's opinion count more than mine simply because I always choose to live in major metropolitan areas???
C.J. is on it. This is good news, and it's going to get better. It's really inconceivable that the neo-cons and Rovites expect a bounce from the convention. We ex-Reagan Democrats are sitting back and waiting. But you know the more Bush is seen, the more he's exposed. He's weak on jobs, education and he botched the war on terror, as these politically motivated alerts demonstrate. After both conventions are done, and if Bush risks a debate with Kerry, the independents and the undecideds will step back, access the last four years and they'll go Kerry-Edwards.
Why should someone in Idahoâs opinion count more than mine simply because I always choose to live in major metropolitan areas???
That's what the House of Reps. is for. At any rate, my vote is meaningless because I live in a major metropolitan area and vote Republican. It all balances out in the end
He botched the war on terror, as these politically motivated alerts demonstrate.
Um. Excuse me? They were politically motivated to help Kerry?
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