First Quarter GDP, Advanced Estimate
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Steve Verdon | Wednesday, April 29, 2009 |
The advanced estimate for first quarter GDP for 2009 indicates that the economy shrank 6.1%, a faster rate than the preliminary report indicated.
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2009, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to advance estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP decreased 6.3 percent.
There has been a slight increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
About the Author: Steve has a B.A. in Economics from the University of California, Los Angeles and attended graduate school at The George Washington University, leaving school shortly before staring work on his dissertation when his first child was born. He works in the energy industry and prior to that worked at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Division of Price Index and Number Research.
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The worst news of the day, but maybe expected by us pessimists:
From Bloomberg, "Fed Is Said to Seek Capital for at Least Six Banks." The report cites sources who've been "briefed on the matter."
Advance Release
Preliminary Release
Final Release
That's the order.
The optimistic report of falling inventories could mean business has been living off those inventories and will soon have to replenish stock leading to a better second quarter. Credit loosening may help as well. Heck, might as well throw in lower energy costs over last year (I still believe high energy costs damaged business and consumer confidence while hurting us in real terms).
If the media would play up the black swan of natural gas reserves and improved extraction it could reassure the public as well. We are still in shock from what happened last summer.
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