Comments on: Fourth Quarter GDP http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/fourth_quarter_gdp/ Online Journal of Politics and Foreign Affairs Wed, 25 Nov 2009 03:20:52 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.5 hourly 1 By: spencer http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/fourth_quarter_gdp/comment-page-1/#comment-543680 spencer Mon, 29 Dec 2008 22:23:43 +0000 http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/?p=29370#comment-543680 In October and November the change in the PCE deflator excluding food and energy was zero. Using the Oct. and Nov. real PCE as the estimate of the fourth quarter real pce - i,e., that Dec will be at the average of the two -- the 4th quarter change in real PCE will be -2.2% (SAAR). But this is less than assumed in the consensus forecast behind a 4% drop in 4th Q real GDP. In October and November the change in the PCE deflator excluding food and energy was zero.

Using the Oct. and Nov. real PCE as the estimate of the fourth quarter real pce - i,e., that Dec will be at the average of the two -- the 4th quarter change in real PCE will be -2.2% (SAAR).

But this is less than assumed in the consensus forecast behind a 4% drop in 4th Q real GDP.

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