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	<title>Comments on: Gallup Final Pre-Election Poll:  Near-Deadlock</title>
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		<title>By: dw</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/gallup_final_pre-election_poll_near-deadlock/comment-page-1/#comment-26155</link>
		<dc:creator>dw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Nov 2004 16:12:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=7854#comment-26155</guid>
		<description>On review, I don&#039;t think I should have used &quot;unbiased&quot; there, because the question is biased (albeit a very low level on the surveyor&#039;s side). I meant &quot;simple,&quot; or rather, &quot;simplistic.&quot;

Think of it like baseball -- &quot;right direction&quot; is like batting average. BA is a simple, binary statistic (you either get a hit or you don&#039;t) that people use as a measuring stick because it&#039;s consistent over time. Ichiro&#039;s .372 is fundamentally comparable to George Brett&#039;s .390 in 1980. Any good sabermetician will tell you, though, that BA is an awful stat because it doesn&#039;t include XBH or BB. It is, though, a consistent measuring stick.

So, I don&#039;t think it&#039;s a bad question to ask. You&#039;re right -- &quot;right direction&quot; is in the eye of the beholder, and one could have issues with the social direction of this country and still approve of the president&#039;s policies. It&#039;s a useful yardstick, though. And a six point differential is actually pretty low -- I seem to recall Clinton having a 10+ point differential in &#039;96. The only reason it&#039;s interesting this time is because Bush&#039;s approval rating is hovering at 50% and &quot;conveys divisiveness&quot; where Clinton&#039;s was hovering at 60%.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On review, I don't think I should have used "unbiased" there, because the question is biased (albeit a very low level on the surveyor's side). I meant "simple," or rather, "simplistic."</p>
<p>Think of it like baseball -- "right direction" is like batting average. BA is a simple, binary statistic (you either get a hit or you don't) that people use as a measuring stick because it's consistent over time. Ichiro's .372 is fundamentally comparable to George Brett's .390 in 1980. Any good sabermetician will tell you, though, that BA is an awful stat because it doesn't include XBH or BB. It is, though, a consistent measuring stick.</p>
<p>So, I don't think it's a bad question to ask. You're right -- "right direction" is in the eye of the beholder, and one could have issues with the social direction of this country and still approve of the president's policies. It's a useful yardstick, though. And a six point differential is actually pretty low -- I seem to recall Clinton having a 10+ point differential in '96. The only reason it's interesting this time is because Bush's approval rating is hovering at 50% and "conveys divisiveness" where Clinton's was hovering at 60%.</p>
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		<title>By: McGehee</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/gallup_final_pre-election_poll_near-deadlock/comment-page-1/#comment-26138</link>
		<dc:creator>McGehee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Nov 2004 12:31:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=7854#comment-26138</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt; The ânationâs directionâ question is a pretty solid pollable because itâs an unbiased aggregate question.&lt;/i&gt;

Okay.

But it&#039;s not something you can really use to extrapolate dissatisfaction with anything in particular for that very reason. The tendency is to try to reconcile majority approval of Bush with majority dissatisfaction with the nation&#039;s direction, as though they are both concerned with the shiny red fruit -- when I think what we&#039;re both saying is, that ain&#039;t so.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i> The ânationâs directionâ question is a pretty solid pollable because itâs an unbiased aggregate question.</i></p>
<p>Okay.</p>
<p>But it's not something you can really use to extrapolate dissatisfaction with anything in particular for that very reason. The tendency is to try to reconcile majority approval of Bush with majority dissatisfaction with the nation's direction, as though they are both concerned with the shiny red fruit -- when I think what we're both saying is, that ain't so.</p>
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		<title>By: dw</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/gallup_final_pre-election_poll_near-deadlock/comment-page-1/#comment-26131</link>
		<dc:creator>dw</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Nov 2004 06:40:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=7854#comment-26131</guid>
		<description>The &quot;nation&#039;s direction&quot; question is a pretty solid pollable because it&#039;s an unbiased aggregate question. 

But I could ask them to rephrase it for you if you wish.

&quot;Do you believe the country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction?&quot;

A. Right direction

B. I am a homosexual French-speaking Communist appeasing flip-flopping abortion doctor who thinks Hanoi Jane is a MILF and wants to bring about the downfall of America by banning Krispy Kreme and encouraging teenage girls in southeastern Oklahoma to &quot;go to the bathroom together&quot; if you know what I mean and I think you do

C. Don&#039;t know, because I&#039;m a wishy-washy brainless jellyfish who drives with my turn signal on and will be the first against the wall when the UN comes in their black helicopters

Would this work better for you? Let me know. I have a conference call with Zogby tomorrow afternoon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The "nation's direction" question is a pretty solid pollable because it's an unbiased aggregate question. </p>
<p>But I could ask them to rephrase it for you if you wish.</p>
<p>"Do you believe the country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction?"</p>
<p>A. Right direction</p>
<p>B. I am a homosexual French-speaking Communist appeasing flip-flopping abortion doctor who thinks Hanoi Jane is a MILF and wants to bring about the downfall of America by banning Krispy Kreme and encouraging teenage girls in southeastern Oklahoma to "go to the bathroom together" if you know what I mean and I think you do</p>
<p>C. Don't know, because I'm a wishy-washy brainless jellyfish who drives with my turn signal on and will be the first against the wall when the UN comes in their black helicopters</p>
<p>Would this work better for you? Let me know. I have a conference call with Zogby tomorrow afternoon.</p>
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		<title>By: McGehee</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/gallup_final_pre-election_poll_near-deadlock/comment-page-1/#comment-26130</link>
		<dc:creator>McGehee</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Nov 2004 03:02:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">/?p=7854#comment-26130</guid>
		<description>&lt;i&gt;Bush had a 51-46 approval/disapproval rating from likely voters ... But when likely voters were asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the nation&#039;s direction, 46% said they were satisfied and 52% were dissatisfied.&lt;/i&gt;

The latter question might be ambiguous in a lot of respondents&#039; minds. They may be dissatisfied over things for which they don&#039;t blame Bush -- such as the vitriol of political messages during this campaign, or the blatant partisanship of CBS&#039; abortive &quot;Bush AWOL&quot; memo story and the like. Or even the threat of the courts imposing a redefinition of marriage over the expressed objections of the electorate.

It might have been more useful for the question to be posed in more specific, Bush-centric terms.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Bush had a 51-46 approval/disapproval rating from likely voters ... But when likely voters were asked if they were satisfied or dissatisfied with the nation's direction, 46% said they were satisfied and 52% were dissatisfied.</i></p>
<p>The latter question might be ambiguous in a lot of respondents' minds. They may be dissatisfied over things for which they don't blame Bush -- such as the vitriol of political messages during this campaign, or the blatant partisanship of CBS' abortive "Bush AWOL" memo story and the like. Or even the threat of the courts imposing a redefinition of marriage over the expressed objections of the electorate.</p>
<p>It might have been more useful for the question to be posed in more specific, Bush-centric terms.</p>
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