Weird, especially considering I am not a religious person.

So, you don't worship Amazons?

I've made my points elsewhere.
Government is the reason we're in the current situation. We cannot, therefore, logically depend on government to get us out of it.

I don't know, Steve. If there's a bubble it's a pretty long-lived one. The time horizon for price increases quoted above doesn't start early enough. IIRC prices tripled between 1998 and 2004, too.

How long did the housing bubble last? How long did the dot.com bubble last?

Further, not all price increases have to be due to bubbles. That is, price increases in 1998 - 2004 may have logical explanations such as the increase in world wide demand, the Iraq war, etc. In those cases you might very well expect prices to go up, so you could expect to see steady increases in oil prices over time which have nothing at all do do with a bubble.

Wait, so if the price of oil were expected to go up in the future, it would be going up now, which obviously it is, but our current increase in oil price isn't evidence of this phenomenon? I'm confused on something here.

What Hamilton and Engel are saying is that they see no reason for these price increases. In short, it isn't based on anything indicating that oil should be going to $300/barrel, other than that the price is rising. Now prices can rise for good reasons, or no reason at all. The latter case is when you may very well have a bubble.

First off, get over that "hybrid" nonsense. The electricity is still coming from oil. Get back to basics.

Uhhhmmmm no. Currently the fashionable sources of electricity are coal, natural gas, and nuclear, with a smattering of renewables.

An entire hydrogen-cell economy is now almost as affordable as oil. New ways of harnessing geothermal and hydrodynamic are now at least as affordable as oil. Get outside the box, and wake up and smell the 21st century.

Which you are going to use to do what? Make electricity? Hmmm, so which statement of yours is true, this one or the one I quoted immediately above?

Geothermal and Hydro don't have the above problems, but you're limited to where you can get that energy from. If you live somewhere far from a good source of hydro or geothermal, you can't use them. Even when they are available, they have a not insignificant environmental impact.

Hydrogen has problems too, it's hard to store and it's hard to create. Most sources of of hydrogen today are from hydrocarbons, especially fossil fuels. Getting Hydrogen from pure water takes more energy that you can get back, so that's a non-starter too.

If you want to replace oil and coal, you need an energy source that meets all of these criteria:
1.) Be storable
2a.) Be transportable or
2b.) Be producable anywhere
3.) Be able to control the rate of energy released
4.) Have a consistent and predictable availability

So far the only non-fossil fuels that meet those criteria are biofuels and nuclear. Biofuels currently suffer from a scalability problem, and nuclear has a waste disposal problem.

Fusion power is the only long-term sustainable source of energy, but it's been "10 years away" from breaking even for about 30 years now. Still, if any technology deserves our money and attention, I think here.

Quit jawing about "the guv'ment oughta do sumtin' 'bout the price a' gas," and start electing statesmen (and women) who will kick the oil executives to the curb and invest in alternatives.

I don't know, Steve. If there's a bubble it's a pretty long-lived one. The time horizon for price increases quoted above doesn't start early enough. IIRC prices tripled between 1998 and 2004, too.

While you are on the subject, Mr. Verdon, I would like to get your take on the hedge funds influence on oil and hedge funds in general. Do you see them as a good thing for the economy or a bad thing? Is there a sound defense for an elite group of investors with the power and money to influence markets and acting mostly unregulated to even exist? Are they due for more regulation?

Weird, especially considering I am not a religious person.

Suppose you have good reason to expect prices to be $300/barrel in June of 2012 (the mid point in Maxwell’s prediction time frame above). If you bought as much as you could now and stored it till 2012 (about 4 years) you’d earn over 222% return on your investment. Even accounting for storage costs you’d make a killing. This kind of incentive would push up the price right now. We aren’t seeing it so most investors don’t believe Maxwell’s prediction.

Wait, so if the price of oil were expected to go up in the future, it would be going up now, which obviously it is, but our current increase in oil price isn't evidence of this phenomenon? I'm confused on something here.

Say what now?

Also, if people were paying an extra $5k for gas a year, the hybrinds are attractive anywhere under 5k per year, not just 5k total. Of course that number only holds for hybrids that save you, what, 66% of the gas a comparable combustion engine would, which is probably not realistic.

In any event, this is what happens when government tries to control markets.

When they start in with that nonsense, it's usually the first sign that the bubble will break shortly, and this is people trying to extend the ride on the wave a bit longer by letting more people (read that less experienced people with some money to throw way) to help them along.

You may want to look at the Telegraph, today. They tell a different story.