Comments on: GDP for 4th Quarter 2008

By: tom p

tom p — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 00:56:04 +0000

I do thin(k) Obama engaged in fear mongering to get his desired policies passed, but that speaks of the weakness of said policy when you can't sell it on the merits but by scaring people.

Steve V, that is called "Politiics".... I know you hate that word, but there it is.

By: Steve Verdon

Steve Verdon — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 00:43:53 +0000

steve s,

When have I ever said the fundamentals were strong or that we are in a mental recession? I do thing Obama engaged in fear mongering to get his desired policies passed, but that speaks of the weakness of said policy when you can't sell it on the merits but by scaring people.

By: steve s

steve s — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 23:29:04 +0000

But...but...I thought the fundamentals of our economy were strong...we're just in a mental recession...Obama was just 'fear-mongering' how bad things were...

By: tom p

tom p — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 22:27:45 +0000

and as Dr. Perry says:

"The chart above displays annual real GDP growth from 1928-1945 (data here), showing the -29.3% cumulative drop in real GDP between 1930 and 1933 during the Great Depression. That would be like today's real GDP going from the current level of $14.5 trillion back to the level of real output in 1996. And that seems highly unlikely."

Tho I wonder how he feels about it now. (he has not yet posted on the latest GDP #s.

By: tom p

tom p — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 22:20:55 +0000

To put this decline in some perspective I think we need to recognize that a) ours is not the only economy that’s declining; b) our decline isn’t as bad as many; and c) last year’s decline was nothing like the Great Depression.

I couldn't help but notice Dave, that you picked 1932, so I looked it up: In '30 the GDP was -8.6%, '31 it was -6.4%, in '32 it was the -13% you cite. Just trying to give a clearer picture. The tale may not be told for another year.

By: spencer

spencer — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 21:44:05 +0000

In 1929 real GDP growth was 3 % as compared to 1.1% in 2008.

By: hsr0601

hsr0601 — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:39:56 +0000

I think the choice from success/democracy/peace/energy independence/science and failure/invasion/war/energy overreliance/ignorance is up to Americans. As seen in the incurable loss of oil-based car makers concentrating on lobbying and the low demand for oil, the time has changed asking for action, please get real. The world market has not responded to the position on the fence in the U.S. lately. In a sense, taking the war spending into account, oil can be cited as the most expensive resource. At this moment, the most fearful threat may be not the rift surrounding oil, but the worsening world-wide recession and poverty, then the extra forces to Afghanistan and extending period of stay,excessive remaining forces in Iraq need to be retracted to forgo the wasteful, unproductive spending, and it will be the mere pathway to recovery as the global market is intertwined. Thanks.

By: Pete Burgess

Pete Burgess — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 19:29:36 +0000

Steve, take a look at this site, especially the Gold Volatility model. I have the paper if you want to read more about it. It seems to be a very reliable indicator of PCE out 6 months. Look where PCE is going to be in June.

http://www.supplysideforum.com/

By: Triumph

Triumph — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 18:43:25 +0000

This is decidedly worse economic performance and as such it is likely that this recession could very well be the worst on record since WWII. I still don’t think it is Great Depression style bad, but it is indeed very bad.

It is no coincidence that the worst part of the recession started once Obama got elected. All business owners and corporate types knew that McCain would be able to solve the problem.

Once B. Hussein, the spendy-spend liberal got in, all economic confidence eroded. This guy has a lot to answer for.