GOP Clawing Back in Key Senate Races
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James Joyner | Tuesday, October 24, 2006 |
A surge of negative advertising has put the Republicans back in the lead in the Virginia and Tennessee Senate races and with a fighting chance in several other key contests.
In Virginia, incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen stopped losing ground after he was accused of racial insensitivity and went on the attack against his Democratic opponent, James Webb, in part charging that Webb was insensitive to women in the military.
In Tennessee, Republican candidate Bob Corker fired top campaign staff and went on the attack against his Democratic rival, Rep. Harold Ford.
While many analysts and insiders of both major parties expect the Republicans to lose control of the House of Representatives, the Senate remains a close contest. Control of either house of Congress is crucial to passing legislation, while the Senate has sole power to confirm appointments to the federal judiciary, including the Supreme Court.
The polls revealed a slightly shifting landscape in recent weeks, with Democrats consolidating leads in several states but Republicans not only clawing back in Tennessee and Virginia but also narrowing their gap in Montana, all but given up as lost by national Republican leaders. Of the nine key battleground states, Republicans are ahead in two and within the polls’ 4 percentage-point margin of error in three more.
RealClear Politics has the following breakdown based on polling averages:
DEMOCRATS NEED TO NET SIX SEATS TO TAKE OVER SENATE
RCP Avgs: Dems + 5 Seats
TOSS UPS
MO: Talent* vs McCaskillNJ: Kean vs Menendez*TN: Corker vs FordVA: Allen* vs WebbLEANS DEMOCRAT
MD: Steele vs CardinMI: Bouchard vs Stabenow*MT: Burns* vs TesterOH: DeWine* vs BrownPA: Santorum* vs CaseyRI: Chafee* vs WhitehouseLEANS REPUBLICAN
LIKELY DEMOCRAT
MN: Kennedy vs KlobucharWA: McGavick vs Cantwell*LIKELY REPUBLICAN
AZ: Kyl* vs PedersonLIKELY LIEBERMAN
CT: Lieberman* vs Lamont
Click the links for a detailed breakdown of the current polling, candidate bios, current news, and other information related to each contest.
The overall trend is bad news for the Republicans. A loss of five seats is huge by any reasonable measure. Still, that would still leave them in control.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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The overall trend is bad news for the Republicans. A loss of five seats is huge by any reasonable measure. Still, that would still leave them in control.
The real bad news is that negative campaigning still works, for both sides. It is a strong disincentive for anyone who values his own good name to run for public office.
To put this in perspective, the GOP is at a 75 year high in both house and senate seats. A 5 seat senate loss would put them back roughly 5 years.
There are also 5 to 7 senate races where better recruiting could have made a world of difference. If the GOP had recruited the right set of candidates, we would be talking about breaking even or even gaining seats. I think the 2008 recruiting season is likely to be much stronger for the simple reason that the Senate seats can draft off the national campaign. If the dems do take the house, they will be having to defend some GOP leaning districts (e.g. TX-22 if it falls).
The macro trend is still towards the GOP. If you look at what they need to do (getting back to basics on smaller government) vs what the dems need to do (become trust worthy on national security) the GOP has an easier time of turning around short term set backs. That said, they do need to do the work.
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