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GW Battleground Poll: Bush 49, Kerry 47

Bush up by 4 in the Battleground Poll

Among likely voters, 49 per cent would pick Mr Bush and 45 per cent Mr Kerry, according to the George Washington University Battleground 2004 Poll conducted from September 12-16 and released on Tuesday.

This is very much in line with the RealClear Politics average of all the polls:

3-Way Bush 48.5, Kerry 42.8, Nader 1.8
Head-to-Head Bush 49.2, Kerry 43.5

I continue to believe their method–simply averaging the major polls–is the most likely to capture the national race. Of course, this isn’t a national election but rather 50 state elections plus a 3 Democrat electors from DC.

About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.

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