Still, a hallmark of Realism is that sometimes military power must be used to secure one’s national interests. It’s hard to conceive of anything more important to U.S. security than defeating these “forces of nihilism” who are trying to kill us.

The Madhi Army has never "tried to kill us." Yes, they have attacked US troops in Iraq--but that has been purely defensive. As for Hezbollah, they are a not a significant threat to the US. It has been over two decades since an attack on US interests--but that was a military target in Lebanon in the middle of a civil war.

What’s unclear at this point is what our options are in these related crises. Aside from whether we have the patience and backbone to fight this Long War–the indications would seem to be negative on that front–there is serious question as to whether force can be effective. Is it too late to defeat the Iraqi insurgency? Is regime change the only answer in Iran and Syria? If so, do we have the ability to control the aftermath better than we did in Iraq?

If you were such a "realist" you might have anticipated prior to Bush's 2003 US destabilization program in the Middle East that these questions would have come up .

Bush's arguments for invasion were based on ideology as opposed to analysis of actual facts. This was well known to anyone with a subscription to the Wall Street Journal or who had taken an Intro to Modern Middle East History class.

Bush has made the US weaker, cultivated the conditions for a failed state in IRaq, undermined our military, and left problems for which there are no solutions. This is exactly what skeptics argued four years ago.

Jim Henley - they can easily get to Lebanon via Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards regularly go in and out of Lebanon to the Hezbollah strongholds.

To Jim henley - try going through Iran. Pretty easy to get across the border from Iraq to Iran, and from there straight across the Syrian frontier and into Lebanon.

Still no civil flights out of Baghdad International, IIRC.

Any road trip from Madhi regions of Iraq to Lebanon means driving through Sunni bandit country on the way to Jordan or Syria. I wouldn't want to be a Shiite on that bus.

That leaves, what, taking ship out of Basra to Tripoli? (The Lebanese one.) In what, two by two, ten by ten, a hundred at a time?

Maybe. I suppose where there's a will there's a way. I could easily believe that Hezbollah officers have provided training assistance to the Mahdi Army in Iraq, and that the odd officer cadre has made a field trip or two. But entire battalions worth of Mahdists passing through Lebanon seems farfetched.

Ahmadinejad's idea of help though is like asking a murderer to shoot you in the head instead of the heart, either way you are dead, but by giving in to your request, the murderer helped huh? A deal, where only one person is acting in good faith is no....

Hezbollah can move freely throughout the country because there is no rule of law. If you divide it up, at least you can guard the borders.