Comments on: Hillary Clinton Fact Wars

By: Bruce Moomaw

Bruce Moomaw — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 14:17:05 +0000

Postscript: there have been two polls I know of showing how an honest replay of the Michigan primary between Hillary and Obama would have turned out out. Rasmussen showed them running dead even; just yesterday, Public Policy Polling gave Hillary an edge, but only a 4-point one.

By: Bruce Moomaw

Bruce Moomaw — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 14:14:06 +0000

Actually, Obama and Hillary -- at the end of this thing -- are almost certainly going to be both so close in terms of their total vote and their relative strength against McCain that -- dare one say it? -- we'll all actually be free to pick the one that we honestly think is better qualified to be President. (By the way, even if you count Florida and DON'T count any of the caucuses -- which arguably were unfairly biased against Hillary supporters because they tend to be old and so have trouble attending caucuses -- Obama STILL leads Hillary by 29,000 in total primary votes, unless you also count the hopelessly biased Michigan primary.)

By: PoliBlog (TM): A Rough Draft of my Thoughts » More on the Popular Vote Argumenty

Fri, 25 Apr 2008 00:59:20 +0000

[...] with the popular vote argument over at Lawyers, Guns and Money and James Joyner looks at the Hillary Clinton Fact Wars over at OTB. Sphere: Related Content Previous Posts On Using First Names in Politics [...]

By: KJ

KJ — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 21:48:28 +0000

Remember, the bigger the lie and the more often you tell it, the more people believe it.

Elect HRC and we will get what we deserve.

By: yetanotherjohn

yetanotherjohn — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:30:58 +0000

I think you are missing the real story behind this race. Think how painfully flawed Hillary is as a candidate. Even the reliable left commentators have been noting how much they don't want to see the Clinton circus back in DC. Despite her bravery under sniper fire, she is not an appealing candidate.

But she is still wining major contests like PA. She is somewhere between one or two percent behind to in the popular vote to slightly ahead depending on how you count the votes. The best case count of delegates (super and otherwise) puts her trailing by about 7%. In short, as flawed as she is, a significant percentage of the democratic primary sees her opponent Obama as even less appealing. The democrats have somehow found a way to find the two people most likely to lose in November and are almost evenly split on which is worst.

We will have to see how the election plays out, but I suspect that it will be easier for the GOP to bring home it's base than the democrats. Both Hillary and Obama are hard left. They have plenty of positions that will infuriate the right. The very reason that there is any question about the right coming home to McCain is what is going to make him attractive to the independent and 'Reagan democrats'. To put it another way, McCain is essentially tied in the polls with Hillary and Obama. That has him running about 15% ahead of generic democrat vs generic republican. Of course there are plenty of issues (economy, Iraq, terrorism, pork in politics, etc) that can change the whole narrative. But that's why we bother to have the election.

By: Pug

Pug — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 14:02:06 +0000

I agree with your summary with one small quibble. I think the surprising thing about Michigan is that Clinton got only 55% of the popular vote when she was the only candidate whose name appeared on the ballot. Saddam and Fidel always did much better than that.

I think if there had been a campaign there Obama would have won the state, mainly because John Edwards was still in the race and would have taken more votes from Clinton than from Obama.

Of course, I could be wrong. That would be nothing new.