Hillary Clinton’s Gender Gap
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James Joyner | Monday, April 2, 2007 |
Gallup’s Frank Newport and Joseph Carroll have an interesting, if somewhat bizarre, look at Hillary Clinton’s “gender gap.”
The “interesting” part:
Sen. Hillary Clinton has a more positive image among women than among men. This gender gap is most evident among “pure” independents who do not lean toward either party. Clinton’s favorable rating among purely independent women is 21 points higher than among independent men. The majority of independent women have a favorable view of Clinton, aligning them with Democrats; most independent men have an unfavorable view of Clinton, aligning them with Republicans.
The “bizarre” part?
The analysis presented in this report is based on 10,065 Gallup Poll interviews in which Clinton’s favorable rating was measured, conducted between February 2005 and March 2007.
In my Army days, we had an expression of incredulity, “Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, Over?” that seems appropriate here. Why on earth would one lump in snapshots taken over a two year period to get aggregate data? It doesn’t work that way. Looking at polling from a long period of time can be useful for trend analysis, but it’s meaningless in trying to draw conclusions about the present day.
UPDATE: Ignore what follows. As a commenter pointed out, the chart below is of “net” favorables (i.e, favorables minus unfavorables) and is not radically different from above.
I saved a chart from a February 26 Gallup poll for use in a previous poll.
As of five weeks ago, according to the same polling firm, Clinton had national favorables of 18 percent. Yet, according to this current release, she’s at 53 percent?!
Something does not compute here.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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The 18% is a net favorable. The net favorable of the two year snapshot is 11%. The two year snapshot is odd, but the data doesn't appear to be that different.
Ack. You're right. I was just looking through my saved photos to see if I had a handy Gallup poll for quick comparison and then didn't look that far into the numbers.
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