And I don't think the nomination is hers for the taking-- not even close. 2008 is a long way away.

Even with her chief fundraiser looking at a possible prison sentence? I'll grant the "raw political talent," but she lacks the ability to engage an audience that her husband has -- and which GWB has.

On top of that, she and her husband are wildly popular with the party base. Short of some big screw up, the nomination is hers for the asking.

Unless by "big screw-up" you mean staying out of the race last year, I disagree. Ironically, it was too soon last year, but 2008 will be too late. Her appeal may not be as ephemeral as "flavor of the month," but it's already fading. And the recent spate of "Hillary? No!" columns of which this is only one, are a strong sign of that.

So anyone too tied to the President (Frist or Cheney) will be defeated. I think the country is also tiring of the religious right, so anyone who ties themseves to them (Frist) will loose.

Since Cheney is about as likely to run for President as Hillary is to run for Miss Teen USA, we'll take that part under advisement. As for "tiring of the religious right," I'm still mystified as to what, exactly, is inspiring this alarm. Just last year it was neocons that were the bogeyman of the Bush regime -- now it's theocracy. It's as though two entirely different and mutually exclusive GWB teams have been in power at the same time. I guess if you can simultaneously believe that Bush is an idiot and the mastermind of a new American imperialist conspiracy, you can also believe in the coming neocon theocracy.

pick a populist conservative who downplays the social policies (McCain (who would beat Hillary), Gulliani (who is horribly undisciplined and could end up the Dean of the Republicans), Hagel).

[giggle] Okay, now you're just being silly.

Whether she will win the presidency is way to early to tell because there is no Republican front runner. If at the end of Bush's presidency, his popularity continues to be split down the middle (the most likely scenario) I think that will be a bad sign for the Republicans that the country is sick of them. So anyone too tied to the President (Frist or Cheney) will be defeated. I think the country is also tiring of the religious right, so anyone who ties themseves to them (Frist) will loose. The most likely scenario for the Republicans to beat Hillary is to do something their base will hate: pick a populist conservative who downplays the social policies (McCain (who would beat Hillary), Gulliani (who is horribly undisciplined and could end up the Dean of the Republicans), Hagel). Or find an unknown who can position himself as needed (George Allen). And then of course there is the political reporter's dream: Condi Rice (who will have to be on everyone's short list for VP).

Say what you want about Hillary though, it is exciting that a woman actually has a reasonable shot at the nomination and winning the presentation. That is a huge step for a America, and that alone could tip things in favor of Hillary. It's impossible to predict what the impact of it will be.