Anybody know what the current "house PE" is today??

In round numbers $6B was the estimate of "over-valuation" of the housing stock at the 2005/2006 peak. That is about what has been lost now. Second, if you look at the inflation adjusted long term price trend, a median housing price in the vicinity of $185K seems reasonable. We are in that neighborhood.

Of course, general economic conditions and inventory overhang could cause the price to "over shoot" on the downside. However, even in very difficult economic times of the past, a certain fundamental support level in housing seems to be reached. That is the nature of asset blow offs. When the correction is done, what seemed like free fall forever.... stops suddenly. Intrinsic value gets recognized.

Steve Verdon has posted repeatedly that the spending bill, er, stimulus bill, may hit at exactly the point in time when recovery is underway. The housing statistics, not to mention history, has him looking pretty good right now.

PS--no phil gramm, no george will, this is not a mental or imaginary recession. You idiots.

PS2--thanks Barney Frank, for working to make apartment rental affordable for poor people like me. I could use a damn break.

(*not as great as it sounds. You can usually only tutor from 4 pm to 6pm, and not on Friday, Saturday, or Sunday.)

Is anyone suggesting unemployment rates even as high as 10 percent?

well, U-5, which includes me, is currently at 8.3%

And while you are thinking about this situation, get your "Thank-You" cards off to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.

Right. Because Barney Frank and Chris Dodd were in control of congress during the housing bubble... Barney Frank was pushing The Ownership Society, rather than working on rental housing... Dude, Red State and Powerline are over there. This place is supposed to be for smart conservatives.

And while you are thinking about this situation, get your "Thank-You" cards off to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.

and Phil Graham and Larry Summers and Paul O'Neil, and Alan Greenspan, and...

Jesus, I can't afford the postage!

I know guys who have been out for 6+ mos and while I expect to be back at work some time this spring, I am not getting my long term hopes up. This industry will be depressed for a long time.

And while you are thinking about this situation, get your "Thank-You" cards off to Barney Frank and Chris Dodd.
My heart bleeds for the jobless folk and and people that are not or under-employed. Hope you do well. But, just remember, who you vote for is sometimes more important than who you work for.

But, barring this thing getting far worse than any reasonable projections I’ve seen, virtually everyone will in fact keep their job. Is anyone suggesting unemployment rates even as high as 10 percent?

I read a couple people who said that, but I can not remember who and doubt their reliability any way.

But I went looking and found this interesting stat from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Construction right now has an effective unemployment rat of 15.3% and if it hits 20% in the next 3 months I won't be surprised at all. Housing is dead and there has been a huge retraction in commercial as well (a rare double whammy for us).

I know guys who have been out for 6+ mos and while I expect to be back at work some time this spring, I am not getting my long term hopes up. This industry will be depressed for a long time.

Can you tell us if the index they use includes average debt for individuals? If it doesn't it is going to be extremely misleading as housing prices dropping will give the appearance of making a home more affordable when it ignores the fact that falling prices put individuals underwater making it harder for them to move.

As noted in the post, I'm not assessing the reliability of the study as an indicator, merely commenting on Ezra's argument that joblessness trumps housing prices.

I think stating that "virtually no one will lose their job" is going too far.

Which is why I didn't say that but rather that "virtually everyone will in fact keep their job." Employment still tops 94 percent. I'm not downselling the personal tragedy for those who are jobless -- I've been there, more than once -- just saying that, for the rest of us, life goes on.

UE as a raw statistic can (and is right now) highly misleading. A more accurate measure would be to look at labor force part rate (falling) and hours worked (also falling). CalculatedRisk has a graph with the number of people who are currently holding part time jobs for economic reasons hitting 8 million, up over 3.5 million from the recession in 2001-2002.

"Now, I’m dubious of statistics provided by interest groups, so take NAR’s claims with a grain of salt."

Good. Can you tell us if the index they use includes average debt for individuals? If it doesn't it is going to be extremely misleading as housing prices dropping will give the appearance of making a home more affordable when it ignores the fact that falling prices put individuals underwater making it harder for them to move. Good news for renters, bad news for current home owners and banks.

Cause anyone who thinks their job is safe is either a fool or works for the government.

But nobody's job is ever safe.