INEVITABLE
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James Joyner | Tuesday, January 27, 2004 |
Matt Yglesias has reconsidered his reconsideration:
I’m more and more thinking that I should never have backed away from my initial prediction that Dean is inevitable and that it was inevitable that he would once again appear evitable before his ultimate inevitability came through. If one thing’s become clear over the past two weeks it’s that no one has any business trying to predict stuff, but if I had to make a pick, it’s looking like Dean (not for 1st in NH, or at least not necessarily) but for the nomination.
Inevitable? To paraphrase Inigo Montoya, I don’t think that word means what Matt thinks it means.
Fresh off being dead wrong on Iowa, I hereby predict that Dean will not win the nomination. While I’m at it, I am also writing off Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark, Dennis Kucinich, and Al Sharpton.
About the Author: James Joyner is the publisher of Outside the Beltway and the managing editor of the Atlantic Council. He's a former Army officer, Desert Storm vet, and college professor with a PhD in political science from The University of Alabama. He lives just outside the Beltway in Alexandria, Virginia with his wife and infant daughter.
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In the spirit of being wrong, I hereby declare Al Sharpton will win New Hampshire.
Beat that!
Not so fast Doctor J.
They just had a poll on FOXNews that said Sharpton is running third in S.C.
Ya just never know.
P
Congrats for staking out a position via Dean (I still think he has a great chance myself, but we shall see).
I think your other predictions (Lieberman et al) are in line with my predicting Spring is coming...
Sharpton will do well in Southern States and that's about it. Of course, he may still win enough delegates to make the convention interesting...
Heh. The others were intended sarcastically.
I don't think Sharpton will do that well in the South. He doesn't have the appeal of a Jesse Jackson.
Two things will work in Sharpton's favor in the South--the fact that the Democratic base in the South is becoming more and more synonymous with the AFrican-American vote, and the large number of Republicans who may cross over and vote for him in the Dem primary just to throw a spanner into the works.
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