If, as regime opponents believe, this is just one more grievance, the straw that broke the camel's back, then it is simple rebellion that will turn on the power and cohesiveness of the IRG.

It might be a mixture of both, obscured by the reality that the Presidential elections are not invested with the same religious imprimatur as the rest of the government. Some may feel willing to demonstrate only on this relatively secular point, whether or not they support the regime.

IMO, a rebellion would challenge the structures of power, not who wields it.

But one kind of demand for change can morph into another, depending how those in power react to the challenges. Recall that the American Revolution, for example, began not as a declaration of independence (to coin a phrase) from the English monarchy, but rather with a demand for representation in the English government.

I'm curious as to what you think a grass roots rebellion would look like, if not this.

IMO, a rebellion would challenge the structures of power, not who wields it.

After two decades of comparions to Hitler, to Stalin to the "What me worry" guy, and so on, why should we even breifly consider giving this moron any thing other than what the left gave us?

Thank you for the conclusive proof that you are no more than the flip side of the people you make so much noise about despising.

Seems to me unusual in the exreme that Iranians should be raising their voices against their government at all, so tight (And deadly, historically speaking) have the controls been.

Why? Because by your lights, Iranians could not possibly love freedom or be willing to die for it?

Sadly, this will probably all be for naught. But watch closely bit, and learn the difference between actually being willing to go out and put your ass on the line for freedom and talking tough on a blog.

I can't speak to your straw men. I referred to President Bush using that term, or "Mr. Bush," or if I had already used one of those forms of address in a paragraph, "Bush."

I didn't like him but he was the President of the United States, my president, and entitled to be properly addressed.

Despite the Twitterized grass roots, despite the throngs marching through Tehran and other Iranian cities, the people who matter -- the real power players -- are still members of Iran's political elite. To my eye, that makes the current "Green Revolution" less of a true grass-roots rebellion and more of a contest between rival elements of the mullah-ocracy. The grass-roots marches, IMO, are one more lever that the Moussavi faction and its backers can use against Khameini and Ahmadinejad.

Largely unaddressed in Western media's breathless coverage is Ahmadinejad's own basis of support. Despite allegations of a fixed election (and the probability the election WAS crooked), Iran's incumbent president does have a significant populist constituency. There's a reason his attacks on Rafsanjani for corruption have bite. People, particularly poorer individuals in rural areas, believe in him.

First, that the street protests, demonstrations, counter-demonstrations, violence and so forth are political theater. The passions are real, and the injuries are certainly real. I don't mean to minimize those. But absent an actual full-throated revolt, the real conflict is between factions in the "mullah" portion of Iran's mullahocracy, and it will actually be resolved there. For the past couple days, I've wondered if the REAL conflict is not between Moussavi and Ahmadinejad, but rather between Rafsanjani and Khameini. If the latter, then both parties have a vested interest in preserving the legitimacy of the Iranian republic ... whatever the heck that means.

Aha. Brain power in action. An interesting change, I must say.

It's true; the real power is nestled in the skinnt backsides of the mullahs, and the rest of this is all for show.

But I'm curious as to what you think a grass roots rebellion would look like, if not this.

After all, the govenment, legitimately elected or not, is the ones with the guns, and the militias. How much more rebelion would there possibly be? Seems to me unusual in the exreme that Iranians should be raising their voices against their government at all, so tight (And deadly, historically speaking) have the controls been. That I suppose to be as close to open rebellion as you're going to get given the situation.

Unworthy of you, Charles. Shallow and unworthy.

And close enough to reality to cause some discomfort, I see.

That would be the President of the United States, or at a minimum Mr. Obama.

Why?
After two decades of comparions to Hitler, to Stalin to the "What me worry" guy, and so on, why should we even breifly consider giving this moron any thing other than what the left gave us?

Explain this.

IMO, two factors are worth remembering:

First, that the street protests, demonstrations, counter-demonstrations, violence and so forth are political theater. The passions are real, and the injuries are certainly real. I don't mean to minimize those. But absent an actual full-throated revolt, the real conflict is between factions in the "mullah" portion of Iran's mullahocracy, and it will actually be resolved there. For the past couple days, I've wondered if the REAL conflict is not between Moussavi and Ahmadinejad, but rather between Rafsanjani and Khameini. If the latter, then both parties have a vested interest in preserving the legitimacy of the Iranian republic ... whatever the heck that means.

Second, it's entirely possible that Ahmadinejad DID legimately win a majority in the election. One possible scenario is that he earned that majority, but that his fixers discredited the election because they overplayed their hand. Tehran protests aside, Ahmadinejad does command significant support in Iran ... in no small part because he denounces the "corrupt" Rafsanjani!

I was a Flower of the mountain yes when I put the rose in my hair like the Andalusian girls used or shall I wear a red yes and how he kissed me under the Moorish wall and I thought well as well him as another and then I asked him with my eyes to ask again yes and then he asked me would I yes to say yes my mountain flower and first I put my arms around him yes and drew him down to me so he could feel my breasts all perfume yes and his heart was going like mad and yes I said yes I will Yes.

sam, perhaps. I'm really trying to get out of snarkland, but it is tough.

S'Ok, Charles, I was feeling cranky yesterday. God knows I'm as guilty as anyone re the snark. It is tough when there's such a target-rich environment. (See, there I go again, I think :) )
I was reading some YouTube commentary a few days ago. At least we haven't descended to that level. Those comment threads make those old Usenet flame wars look like Plato's diaglogues.

Now when has Iran ever launched a suicidal war? Or even started a garden variety one for that matter...