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	<title>Comments on: Iran&#8217;s British Captives:  The Briar Patch</title>
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		<title>By: charles austin</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118369</link>
		<dc:creator>charles austin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Mar 2007 19:02:26 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Daily Kos, where no conspiracy theory is too loony for the light of day.  Like Pogo said, &quot;we have met the enemy and he is us.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Daily Kos, where no conspiracy theory is too loony for the light of day.  Like Pogo said, "we have met the enemy and he is us."</p>
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		<title>By: leveymg</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118347</link>
		<dc:creator>leveymg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Mar 2007 15:50:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118347</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s yet another explanation for the incident in the northern Persian Gulf.  Five days before it occurred, Uzi Mahnaimi, a former Israeli intelligence officer who now works as a UK-based journalist, predicted exactly this sort of incident would occur.  In The Sunday Times of March 19, he reported that a series of provocations had been engineered from within Elliot Abrams&#039; US State Department office, the Iran Syria Operations Group (ISOG).  Mahnaimi states that ISOG is running a psychological warfare operation targeting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG).  This psychological destabilization, including a campaign to convince the IRG that the U.S. had abducted three of its commanders, is intended to split the IRG and provoke a casus belli with Iran.  

See, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/3/21/173814/137&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/3/21/173814/137&lt;/a&gt;;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There's yet another explanation for the incident in the northern Persian Gulf.  Five days before it occurred, Uzi Mahnaimi, a former Israeli intelligence officer who now works as a UK-based journalist, predicted exactly this sort of incident would occur.  In The Sunday Times of March 19, he reported that a series of provocations had been engineered from within Elliot Abrams' US State Department office, the Iran Syria Operations Group (ISOG).  Mahnaimi states that ISOG is running a psychological warfare operation targeting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG).  This psychological destabilization, including a campaign to convince the IRG that the U.S. had abducted three of its commanders, is intended to split the IRG and provoke a casus belli with Iran.  </p>
<p>See, <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/3/21/173814/137" rel="nofollow">http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/3/21/173814/137</a>;</p>
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		<title>By: charles austin</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118292</link>
		<dc:creator>charles austin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Mar 2007 00:07:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118292</guid>
		<description>When do we get to the &quot;Pedacaris alive or Raisuli dead&quot; moment?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When do we get to the "Pedacaris alive or Raisuli dead" moment?</p>
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		<title>By: DL</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118282</link>
		<dc:creator>DL</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 22:48:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118282</guid>
		<description>Russia loves to play the McCain maverick role at times like this and will not go along with anything that gives teeth to the west.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Russia loves to play the McCain maverick role at times like this and will not go along with anything that gives teeth to the west.</p>
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		<title>By: just me</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118247</link>
		<dc:creator>just me</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 20:03:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118247</guid>
		<description>I agree that we should keep our noses out, unless we are invited to be a party to the fix.

I don&#039;t think the UN is going to be much help.

Sanctions will work, only if the world abides by them, and I don&#039;t mucy see the &quot;world&quot; abiding by them, shoot I don&#039;t even see the UN security council doing much more than its typical posturing.  

This situation doesn&#039;t come with any easy solutions.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree that we should keep our noses out, unless we are invited to be a party to the fix.</p>
<p>I don't think the UN is going to be much help.</p>
<p>Sanctions will work, only if the world abides by them, and I don't mucy see the "world" abiding by them, shoot I don't even see the UN security council doing much more than its typical posturing.  </p>
<p>This situation doesn't come with any easy solutions.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118221</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 17:03:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118221</guid>
		<description>Oops, sorry, that was just laziness on my part, I usually check.

I&#039;m not sure how much we can keep out nose out of this, since we are in so deep in Iraq already.  Iran isn&#039;t doing this to get Britain&#039;s attention or concessions, I think all this posturing is solely about the US.   

Legion may be right that the fact that these are British sailors rather than US ones was just a coincidence, unless Iran really thinks they can use this as a wedge between US/UK relations.  More likely they were the most opportune target, and the nationality of the hostages didn&#039;t matter so much (so long as they were westerners).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oops, sorry, that was just laziness on my part, I usually check.</p>
<p>I'm not sure how much we can keep out nose out of this, since we are in so deep in Iraq already.  Iran isn't doing this to get Britain's attention or concessions, I think all this posturing is solely about the US.   </p>
<p>Legion may be right that the fact that these are British sailors rather than US ones was just a coincidence, unless Iran really thinks they can use this as a wedge between US/UK relations.  More likely they were the most opportune target, and the nationality of the hostages didn't matter so much (so long as they were westerners).</p>
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		<title>By: Dave Schuler</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118208</link>
		<dc:creator>Dave Schuler</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 16:07:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118208</guid>
		<description>This post is mine rather than James&#039;s, Michael.

Actually, I think we should keep our nose out of this unless asked.  The British are perfectly able to keep up their end without our help in the matter.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This post is mine rather than James's, Michael.</p>
<p>Actually, I think we should keep our nose out of this unless asked.  The British are perfectly able to keep up their end without our help in the matter.</p>
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		<title>By: Michael</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118204</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 16:03:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118204</guid>
		<description>yetanotherjohn,
   As much as you and other conservatives like to think working through the UN is pointless, it is still an important diplomatic avenue for US foreign policy.  James isn&#039;t suggesting that we use the UN to fix our problems with Iran, he&#039;s suggesting (I think) that a UN resolution would give political cover to other UN member nations to do what the US wants (sanction Iran), while being able to claim that they&#039;re only doing it because of the UN, not the US.  

Right now there is so much opposition in other countries to anything and everything the US wants, politicians in those countries must also outwardly oppose US objectives, even if they personally agree with those objectives.

James, 
    I would suggest that the US propose unreasonably harsh sanctions against Iran, maybe even military action, then let the UK counter-propose something like you suggested.  That way the UNSC members can simultaneously support the UK (the victim) and oppose the US (everyone else&#039;s evil empire).  Then it might actually have a chance at passing.

I&#039;m not sure I like the idea of banning gasoline though, that will make the population mad, but at us, not the regime.  Maybe banning entertainment related items, or convenience items, or extra-cultural items.  Things that will find their way easily and cheaply onto the black market, might create a culture of subverting authority to obtain things the regime might not like them having in the first place.  That puts the regime in the position of either encouraging the proliferation of these items and the associated dependence on the west, or supporting the UN and enforce the ban against their own people.  Either way will weaken their influence over the population.  This of course hinges on the banned items being western-associated while still having demand enough to form a black market.  Anybody have ideas about what items could do that (I&#039;m not familiar with Iranian society).</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>yetanotherjohn,<br />
   As much as you and other conservatives like to think working through the UN is pointless, it is still an important diplomatic avenue for US foreign policy.  James isn't suggesting that we use the UN to fix our problems with Iran, he's suggesting (I think) that a UN resolution would give political cover to other UN member nations to do what the US wants (sanction Iran), while being able to claim that they're only doing it because of the UN, not the US.  </p>
<p>Right now there is so much opposition in other countries to anything and everything the US wants, politicians in those countries must also outwardly oppose US objectives, even if they personally agree with those objectives.</p>
<p>James,<br />
    I would suggest that the US propose unreasonably harsh sanctions against Iran, maybe even military action, then let the UK counter-propose something like you suggested.  That way the UNSC members can simultaneously support the UK (the victim) and oppose the US (everyone else's evil empire).  Then it might actually have a chance at passing.</p>
<p>I'm not sure I like the idea of banning gasoline though, that will make the population mad, but at us, not the regime.  Maybe banning entertainment related items, or convenience items, or extra-cultural items.  Things that will find their way easily and cheaply onto the black market, might create a culture of subverting authority to obtain things the regime might not like them having in the first place.  That puts the regime in the position of either encouraging the proliferation of these items and the associated dependence on the west, or supporting the UN and enforce the ban against their own people.  Either way will weaken their influence over the population.  This of course hinges on the banned items being western-associated while still having demand enough to form a black market.  Anybody have ideas about what items could do that (I'm not familiar with Iranian society).</p>
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		<title>By: legion</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118202</link>
		<dc:creator>legion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:59:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118202</guid>
		<description>Indeed, CW. In fact, one of the first things the UK did was suspend business contacts with Iran, including (I assume, if they hadn&#039;t already) not buying Iranian oil. That might increase oil prices slightly &lt;em&gt;in the UK&lt;/em&gt;, but would increase the supply available (and therefore decrease the price) on the world market...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Indeed, CW. In fact, one of the first things the UK did was suspend business contacts with Iran, including (I assume, if they hadn't already) not buying Iranian oil. That might increase oil prices slightly <em>in the UK</em>, but would increase the supply available (and therefore decrease the price) on the world market...</p>
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		<title>By: legion</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118201</link>
		<dc:creator>legion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:57:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118201</guid>
		<description>Ugh. I should learn to finish typing before I hit &#039;post&#039;... I meant to also say that I&#039;m not sure I buy the whole &quot;trading token&quot; for captured Iranian agents idea... This is way too confrontational, and puts the entire subject on a world media stage. For one thing, if the US agreed to release the agents, it would be a worldwide, public humiliation. Given the importance of &#039;face&#039; in the Arab/Muslim world, that&#039;d be a huge victory for Iran, but they can&#039;t possibly believe Bush, stubborn SOB that he is, would buckle to that kind of pressure? For another thing, it would also put the &lt;em&gt;existence &lt;/em&gt;of those Iranian agents in undeniable world view also, which wouldn&#039;t really hellp with anything else Iran would like to accomplish in the ME, I think...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ugh. I should learn to finish typing before I hit 'post'... I meant to also say that I'm not sure I buy the whole "trading token" for captured Iranian agents idea... This is way too confrontational, and puts the entire subject on a world media stage. For one thing, if the US agreed to release the agents, it would be a worldwide, public humiliation. Given the importance of 'face' in the Arab/Muslim world, that'd be a huge victory for Iran, but they can't possibly believe Bush, stubborn SOB that he is, would buckle to that kind of pressure? For another thing, it would also put the <em>existence </em>of those Iranian agents in undeniable world view also, which wouldn't really hellp with anything else Iran would like to accomplish in the ME, I think...</p>
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		<title>By: C.Wagener</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118200</link>
		<dc:creator>C.Wagener</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:56:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118200</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m sceptical that this has anything to do with oil.  First, Iran&#039;s production is in decline due both to lack of domestic spending and the reluctance (or legal restrictions) of foreign companies to invest.

Second, the importation of refined product makes a rise in oil prices less valuable to Iran then generally thought.

Third, applying rational analysis to certain regimes just doesn&#039;t seem to work.  Saddam could still be in power rather than dead if he&#039;d behaved rationally.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I'm sceptical that this has anything to do with oil.  First, Iran's production is in decline due both to lack of domestic spending and the reluctance (or legal restrictions) of foreign companies to invest.</p>
<p>Second, the importation of refined product makes a rise in oil prices less valuable to Iran then generally thought.</p>
<p>Third, applying rational analysis to certain regimes just doesn't seem to work.  Saddam could still be in power rather than dead if he'd behaved rationally.</p>
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		<title>By: legion</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118199</link>
		<dc:creator>legion</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:52:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118199</guid>
		<description>&lt;blockquote&gt;Britain says it has definitive evidence its personnel were in Iraqi territory. Even if they strayed into Iranian water, the fact the sailors and marines were surrounded and outgunned suggests a planned operation.&lt;/blockquote&gt;
I&#039;m leaning more towards that myself. But it raises an interesting question - were the Brits the actual target, or were they just the &quot;lucky winners&quot;? Were the Iranians hoping to grab USN sailors instead? And either way, what is the point of the &quot;planned operation&quot;? Surely nobody on either side believed grabbing a few dozen uniformed troops would really alter Bush&#039;s war plans, when an increasing majority of actual voters in his own country can&#039;t... :-)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<blockquote><p>Britain says it has definitive evidence its personnel were in Iraqi territory. Even if they strayed into Iranian water, the fact the sailors and marines were surrounded and outgunned suggests a planned operation.</p></blockquote>
<p>I'm leaning more towards that myself. But it raises an interesting question - were the Brits the actual target, or were they just the "lucky winners"? Were the Iranians hoping to grab USN sailors instead? And either way, what is the point of the "planned operation"? Surely nobody on either side believed grabbing a few dozen uniformed troops would really alter Bush's war plans, when an increasing majority of actual voters in his own country can't... :-)</p>
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		<title>By: yetanotherjohn</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-118196</link>
		<dc:creator>yetanotherjohn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Mar 2007 15:32:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-118196</guid>
		<description>And there in lies the rub. What more can the world do if it doesn&#039;t unite against Iran?

We had a similar problem with the Iranian hostages the first time when we put the release of the current hostages ahead of reducing the chances of a future hostage taking. I don&#039;t see any clear path, but if you are looking to the UN to solve a problem, you clearly have the sticky end of the stick.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>And there in lies the rub. What more can the world do if it doesn't unite against Iran?</p>
<p>We had a similar problem with the Iranian hostages the first time when we put the release of the current hostages ahead of reducing the chances of a future hostage taking. I don't see any clear path, but if you are looking to the UN to solve a problem, you clearly have the sticky end of the stick.</p>
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		<title>By:  » OTB News</title>
		<link>http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/comment-page-1/#comment-128649</link>
		<dc:creator> » OTB News</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 31 Dec 1969 18:00:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/03/irans_british_captives_the_briar_patch/#comment-128649</guid>
		<description>&lt;!--%kramer-pre%--&gt;March 2006 February 2006     [IMG Outside The Beltway &#124; OTB]  Beltway Traffic Jam Majority Oppose Supplemental Spending Shenanigans Is Freakonomics Ruining Economics? Military Field Rations Around the World Iran’s British Captives: The Briar Patch Political Profiling of Democratics by Bush U.S. Attorneys? Maryland Passes ‘National Popular Vote’ Law Karl Rove Raps at Correspondents’ Dinner (Video) Dobson Says Fred Thompson Not Real Christian&lt;!--%kramer-post%--&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><!--%kramer-pre%-->March 2006 February 2006     [IMG Outside The Beltway | OTB]  Beltway Traffic Jam Majority Oppose Supplemental Spending Shenanigans Is Freakonomics Ruining Economics? Military Field Rations Around the World Iran&rsquo;s British Captives: The Briar Patch Political Profiling of Democratics by Bush U.S. Attorneys? Maryland Passes ‘National Popular Vote&rsquo; Law Karl Rove Raps at Correspondents&rsquo; Dinner (Video) Dobson Says Fred Thompson Not Real Christian<!--%kramer-post%--></p>
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