I think you're a little too willing to give Karzai the benefit of the doubt. I'm skeptical of both positions because I simply don't know but I do know that if I were in Karzai's shoes I'd probably be making nice with the Iranians. He's not really sure that the Americans will be there next year but he's pretty sure that the Iranians will.

Don't you think Karzai does, though?

Who is Karzai to believe, Bush or his own lying eyes?

Regards, C

His analysis of the situation in southern Iraq is the reason that I believe that the three state endgame is neither a stable nor tolerable solution. Quite to the contrary, I think that the Sunni Arabs in the west (possibly aided by the Saudis) will continue to stir up trouble, neither the Turks nor the Iranians will tolerate a separate Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Shi'ite Arabs in the south are more likely to fight it out with each other (possibly with the involvement of Iran) than they are to make common cause with Iran.

As to Afghanistan, I don't have any idea how helpful the Iranians have been or haven't been and I don't think anybody else reading this blog does, either. That Iranian influence is rising should be no surprise. They're playing the hand they've got pretty well.